With the growing expectation of rising inflation in 2021 what areas of the world markets would you choose to be positioned in if this proves to be the case? I note you only have a few trades on at present. Ae you likely to broaden these in the future?
Sorry, but what does this mean? "As a result, the share offers a lot of optionality on future innovation."
This article by Ewen Callaway for Nature may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
“It’s a game changer,” says Andrei Lupas, an evolutionary biologist at the Max Planck Institute for Developmental Biology in Tübingen, Germany, who assessed the performance of different teams in CASP. AlphaFold has already helped him find the structure of a protein that has vexed his lab for a decade, and he expects it will alter how he works and the questions he tackles. “This will change medicine. It will change research. It will change bioengineering. It will change everything,” Lupas adds.
In some cases, AlphaFold’s structure predictions were indistinguishable from those determined using ‘gold standard’ experimental methods such as X-ray crystallography and, in recent years, cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM). AlphaFold might not obviate the need for these laborious and expensive methods — yet — say scientists, but the AI will make it possible to study living things in new ways.
And
The first iteration of AlphaFold applied the AI method known as deep learning to structural and genetic data to predict the distance between pairs of amino acids in a protein. In a second step that does not invoke AI, AlphaFold uses this information to come up with a ‘consensus’ model of what the protein should look like, says John Jumper at DeepMind, who is leading the project.
The team tried to build on that approach but eventually hit the wall. So, it changed tack, says Jumper, and developed an AI network that incorporated additional information about the physical and geometric constraints that determine how a protein folds. They also set it a more difficult, task: instead of predicting relationships between amino acids, the network predicts the final structure of a target protein sequence. “It’s a more complex system by quite a bit,” Jumper says.
I have been a subscriber for just over 30 years, and in that time, I can't recall many times when a clear and concise analysis of economic and political conditions was as important as it is today. You are doing a wonderful job at keeping the collective informed, allowing us to see a broader picture than our individual biases might otherwise give us. Thanks so much!
And
Congratulations our last subscriber commentary was exceptional. You have done wonders for my confidence and ability to help my clients. Keep up the good work. Best wishes
I hope life for you in California is more fun than it is here in England. But let's hope we really are past the low point as far as the virus is concerned. I had thought that would be true for economies too, but this latest move by President Trump (summarised in the article by Ambrose Evans Pritchard) does raise questions. With this move, which asset classes do you think will benefit and which will lose on a 3-6 month timescale?
Best wishes to you and family.
Thanks to a subscriber for this report from Goldman Sachs which may be of interest. Here is a section:
1.Vaccine-led Recovery to Lift Cyclical Assets
2. Navigating the Path
3. A Steeper Real Yield Curve
4. Europe: Two Steps forward, One Step Back
5. China: Forging Ahead, with Assets in Tow
6. A New Commodity Bull Cycle
7. EM Outperformance: More than Before, Less than Sometimes
8. Rotations: Cyclical, North Asia in Focus but Vaccine News Key to Near Term
9. In Search of New (and Old) Safe Havens, Hedges and Diversifiers
10. Risks from Corona and Beyond
This article by Angelica LaVito and Matt Day for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
Analysts have long expected Amazon to dive deeper into health care in a bet the company can bring its digital real estate and logistical prowess to bear on a roughly $4 trillion industry in the U.S. with a reputation for inefficiency. The company rattled drug retailers with its PillPack acquisition, but Amazon has been slow to integrate the online pharmacy startup into its offerings.
The announcement Tuesday marks the first time that shoppers can order prescription drugs directly on Amazon. Previously, they were redirected to PillPack’s website. An integrated pharmacy removes one of the few gaps in Amazon’s offerings compared with major big box and grocery rivals, some of whom have long filled shoppers’ prescriptions in the same stores where they sold flat-screen televisions or cans of soup.
The discounts are a clear play for people who pay for their medications with cash, whether they are uninsured or are looking to save money. Strong demand for transparency and better deals have helped fuel the rise of discount card programs like GoodRx Holdings Inc. Amazon will display both the price when using insurance and the price without. Infusing transparency into a system that has been frustratingly opaque for consumers could alter the supply chain.
“We designed Amazon Pharmacy to put customers first – bringing Amazon’s customer obsession to an industry that can be inconvenient and confusing,” said TJ Parker, vice president of Amazon Pharmacy and co-founder of PillPack.
Thank you for bringing Rolls Royce to our attention recently. Thanks to you I was able to open a position which looks excellent now. Do you think the volatility in the share will continue for much longer? And what are your views about this share now? Thanks again very much.
Thanks to a subscriber for this article by James Breiding. Here is a section:
Resolution requires concerted and consistent effort over a long period of time. It took 25 years to reform Finland’s primary education system before it topped the league in PISA scores. Singapore achieves superior health care outcomes at 25% of the cost of the US and 40% of Europe thanks to a system which gives consumers “skin in the game”. It’s now thirty years in the making. Denmark’s commitment to wind power dates back to the 1970’s when the benefits were egregiously uneconomic. More than half of its energy is now from renewable sources. Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan has evolved over thirty years since Lamoureux convinced Canada’s labor unions that the fund needs to attract and pay the best people from Goldman Sachs and Blackrock to work for them, rather than paying them fees. Ontario Teachers’ has had an annualized total-return of 10% since reforms were made in 1990, and retirees’ pensions are fully funded with 100% inflation protection provided on all pensions.
It may be far-fetched to think that small, successful, experimental nations can fill this vacuum of leadership, but the world is begging for consistent leadership and a positive example, so an opportunity presents itself to step up.
RR shares finished the day at 84.54p whilst the newly issued rights finished at 51p.
When adding back the 10/3 of 51p to the share price of 84.54p, the result is 254p which is a very nice gain from the news of your first purchase at 154.75 p you gave the collective early October (your second purchase being adroitly at 105p). Thank you for advising us!
BUT:
Yesterday you wrote regarding RR "...The knock-on effect of the rights issue could result in the share falling between 25% and 33% which may be priced into shares over the coming two weeks..."
Three interrelated questions:
1. Do you mean by this that the share price of 84.75 could go down to 57p (-33%) to 64p (-25%) which would be equivalent to the "old share price" coming down from today's 254p to 170p?
2. What would be the reason for this heavy decline - all endogenous factors should already be priced assuming a efficient pricing...
3. If such a decline is probable would it not make more sense to take good profits and then, if the share really comes down or stays where it is, and the turn-around story still seems valid, buy again a lower or more or less unchanged price?
It seems to me that from a risk-adjusted perspective, this would be the better action.
And
Dear Mr. Tracey,
Rolls Royce web site states for shareholder living in USA:
" Due to local regulations the rights issue cannot be offered in your country. We will arrange to try and sell your rights to new ordinary shares for you, and you will be sent the profit (after expenses) if it is £5 or more."
would elaborate on this process for those of us who are not familiar with it.
Many thanks for your great service.
