David Fuller and Eoin Treacy's Comment of the Day
Category - Autonomies

    The Global Internet Phenomena Report

    Thanks to a subscriber for this report from Sandvine which may be of interest. Here is a section:

    Google (Alphabet): YouTube, Google Cloud, Google Play, Google Search, Google Docs, Google Drive, DoubleClick, Gmail, and Crashlytics
    Netflix: Netflix Video
    Facebook: Facebook, Instagram, Facebook Video, WhatsApp, Facebook Messenger, Oculus Rift Microsoft: Xbox Live, Windows Update, Skype, Outlook 365, Office 365, SharePoint, OneDrive, Windows Store, LinkedIn
    Apple: iTunes, iCloud, Apple Software Update, FaceTime, Apple Music, Apple.com, iCloud Photo Stream, Mac App Store

    The brands with video traffic have a significant advantage on the downstream. Google (YouTube), Netflix, Facebook, and Amazon (Amazon Prime) have strong video offerings. Apple soon will, and Microsoft’s entry into gaming streaming (Mixer) will likely move them up this list if they can continue to recruit high profile gamers.

    As shown in the chart, Google is #1 overall and on the upstream. The combination of YouTube, Google Search, and Google Cloud are the biggest contributors to the upstream traffic, as they are an integral part of any Android device’s experience.

    Netflix is the #1 on the downstream and #2 overall as the only pure play in the bunch. As we mentioned last year, if Netflix was not the most efficient streamer at every resolution, their total could easily be twice what it is today, and they continue to excel in video codec work and efficiency in resolution downshifts and upshifts.

    Google is also #1 on connections. This is a much more collaborative effort among Google apps. YouTube, Google Cloud Messaging, Google Search, Crashlytics, DoubleClick, and even Nest are the biggest contributors to Google connections per device.

    Amazon: Amazon Prime, Twitch, Amazon.com, Alexa, Amazon Glacier, Amazon Music

    When combined, these brands took up over 43% of all traffic volume on the internet: The details are interesting. Overall, Google edged out Netflix as the top consumer of bandwidth on the internet (as well as upstream) and dominated in the percentage of connections. Unsurprisingly, Netflix was the single largest consumer of traffic downstream, but Google was not far behind. This is confirmation that brands can build synergies, expand their business, and succeed. The obvious outlier in this case is Netflix, which does one thing and does it exceedingly well, albeit at very high volume. With new streaming services coming out from Facebook and Apple, with 4K and live streaming taking hold, these numbers might climb even higher next year.

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    Xi Says China's Rise Unstoppable in Face of Protests, Trade War

    This article by Annie Lee, Peter Martin and James Mayger for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    President Xi Jinping declared that no force could stop China’s rise, exuding confidence during a key
    anniversary as he faced unprecedented challenges from protesters in Hong Kong and Donald Trump’s trade war.

    Speaking at the start of grand parade marking 70 years since the founding of the People’s Republic, Xi called for stability in Hong Kong, unity among Chinese ethnic groups, and the “complete unification” of the country. Xi delivered the remarks at the site where late Communist Party patriarch Mao Zedong proclaimed the nation’s founding on Oct. 1, 1949.

    “Today, a socialist China is standing in the east of the world and there is no force that can shake the foundation of this great nation,” Xi told a crowd of carefully vetted guests under smoggy skies in the center of the capital. “No force can stop the Chinese people and the Chinese nation forging ahead.”
    Xi’s rallying cry came before an hours-long pageant showcasing China’s industrial and scientific achievements, including sophisticated weaponry such as DF-17 ballistic missiles believed capable of circumventing U.S. defense systems.

    The closely scripted proceedings sought to reinforce the strength of a party facing multiple threats, from the slowest economic growth in decades to violent unrest in one of Asia’s top financial hubs.

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    FedEx Plunges After Slashing Forecast on Trade War, Slowdown

    This article by Thomas Black for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    “In reality, FedEx’s release is largely the result of many management missteps over the years, including overspending on aircraft despite weaker returns in Express over the long-term, and acquisition debacles,” he said in note to investors.

    Trade-War Impact
    The U.S.-China trade war has weighed on manufacturers, disrupting a key market for FedEx. A surge in industrial jobs seen in the first two years of Trump’s presidency has reversed in parts of the country, and there’s evidence that some corners of the U.S. economy are sliding toward recession. Companies have slowed business investment and capital expenditures as uncertainty over trade policies has clouded the outlook for future growth.

    For FedEx, the weaker outlook underscored the hurdles as the company introduces costly changes to its ground network to handle surging e-commerce deliveries while contending with rising competition from Amazon.

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    Sturdy Sales, Confidence Show U.S. Consumer Holds Up as Pillar

    This article by Vince Golle for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    Spurred by a resilient labor market and income gains, the consumer remains the chief source of firepower for economic growth that’s slowed amid fragile global demand, uncertainty surrounding trade policy and lackluster factory output. The report suggests another solid quarter of household consumption, which grew in the April-June period at the fastest pace since 2014.

    “At a time when recession risk dominates most economic discussions, the strength of the U.S. consumer is among the more compelling examples of an economy that is still firing on all cylinders,” Tim Quinlan, senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC, said in a report.

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    Factors or Fundamentals, Quant Tremor Is Field Day for the Geeks

    This article by Sarah Ponczek and Vildana Hajric for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    You wouldn’t know it from benchmarks, but beneath a tranquil surface violent swings are lashing traders along obscure fault lines. Companies like real-estate firms that rose the most in 2019 are plunging, and some that have trailed are being pushed out front. It’s been a mild reckoning for hedge funds and others who have bet on the status quo persisting.

    Amid all the churn has been a renewed focus on a quantitative concept known as factor investing, which groups companies not by industry but traits such as how fast their prices move or profits rise. A question gaining currency in the past few days is whether these categories are just handy descriptions of twists in the market -- or are at some level guiding them.

    “It seems very mechanical right now,” said John Swarr, investment specialist at Penn Mutual Asset Management, which has $27 billion under management. “If you look within some of these stocks that are being hit the hardest, some are in much better shape than others and yet they’re all being affected similarly,” he said. “It does feel like it’s a rules-based rotation.”

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    Alibaba's Financial Superstar is Shining Once More

    This article by Tim Culpan for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    At 1.63 billion yuan ($237 million), Alibaba’s share of Ant’s profit was the highest in almost two years. In three of the past eight quarters, Ant ran at a loss or provided zero earnings to Alibaba, according to the data. Despite this uptick, Ant’s contribution to Alibaba’s bottom line remains minor at around 7% of operating income. It could shrink again if Alibaba’s e-commerce business dwindles.

    Yet Ant has plans to expand its reach throughout China’s economy, including moves deeper into wealth management and other financial products. This could make it relatively robust against any weakness in online and offline commerce should a macroeconomic slowdown continue. 

    Given Alibaba’s moves to broaden its business into offline shopping, cloud computing and entertainment, investors may not need to get panicky about retail just yet. But when that time comes, Ant may have grown large enough to shine a bright enough light across the rest of the business. 

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    Revealed: how Monsanto's 'intelligence center' targeted journalists and activists

    This article from The Guardian may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    The documents, mostly from 2015 to 2017, were disclosed as part of an ongoing court battle on the health hazards of the company’s Roundup weedkiller. They show:

    Monsanto planned a series of “actions” to attack a book authored byGillam prior to its release, including writing “talking points” for “third parties” to criticize the book and directing “industry and farmer customers” on how to post negative reviews.

    Monsanto paid Google to promote search results for “Monsanto Glyphosate Carey Gillam” that criticized her work. Monsanto PR staff also internally discussed placing sustained pressure on Reuters, saying they “continue to push back on [Gillam’s] editors very strongly every chance we get”, and that they were hoping “she gets reassigned”.

    Monsanto “fusion center” officials wrote a lengthy report about singer Neil Young’s anti-Monsanto advocacy, monitoring his impact on social media, and at one point considering “legal action”. The fusion center also monitored US Right to Know (USRTK), a not-for-profit, producing weekly reports on the organization’s online activity.

    Monsanto officials were repeatedly worried about the release of documents on their financial relationships with scientists that could support the allegations they were “covering up unflattering research”.

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    Bridgewater's Ray Dalio Discusses the Impact of China's Growth on the World Economy

    This is a fascinating interview where Ray Dalio discusses the merits of betting on China.