David Fuller and Eoin Treacy's Comment of the Day
Category - Autonomies

    CATL to Deepen Ties With Honda on Battery Development

    This note from Bloomberg may be of interest. Here is a section:

    China’s Contemporary Amperex Technology, the world’s biggest maker of electric-car batteries, signs a global partnership agreement with Honda Motor, according to an exchange filing to Shenzhen Stock Exchange.

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    Email of the day on the big turn:

    Since returning from the Chart seminar in London I have spoken to several people who work in the Israeli high-tech industry, They all tell me that about 10% of their colleagues have lost their jobs recently. Today you referred to your MIIN index. How can we invest in these countries?

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    The Age of Social Media Is Ending

    This article from the Atlantic may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    That was a terrible idea. As I’ve written before on this subject, people just aren’t meant to talk to one another this much. They shouldn’t have that much to say, they shouldn’t expect to receive such a large audience for that expression, and they shouldn’t suppose a right to comment or rejoinder for every thought or notion either. From being asked to review every product you buy to believing that every tweet or Instagram image warrants likes or comments or follows, social media produced a positively unhinged, sociopathic rendition of human sociality. That’s no surprise, I guess, given that the model was forged in the fires of Big Tech companies such as Facebook, where sociopathy is a design philosophy.

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    IBM releases Osprey, the world's most powerful quantum computer

    This article from NewAtlas may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section: 

    As impressive as this year’s updates are, IBM is looking to next year as the real turning point. The company’s roadmap says that next year’s quantum processor, the Condor, will boast a stunning 1,121 qubits. Also on the cards is a modular processor called the Heron, which can stack multiple 133-qubit units together to make more powerful quantum processors.

    And finally, the IBM Quantum System Two will be released towards the end of 2023. This modular system will form the framework of the company’s quantum supercomputers, housing multiple processors with communication links between them. These are all stepping stones on the path towards IBM’s plans of building a quantum system with over 4,000 qubits by 2025.

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    Lucid Stock Is Falling as Reservations for Cars Drop

    This article from Barron’s may be of interest to subscribers. Here it is in full:

    The EV maker Lucid turned in respectable third-quarter earnings and stuck with its forecast for vehicle shipments this year, but the stock is dropping. Reservations are the issue.

    Tuesday evening, Lucid (ticker: LCID) reported a per-share loss of 40 cents from $195 million in sales. Wall Street was looking for a 31-cent loss from $209 million in sales., but earnings and sales don't matter much at this point.

    The company is just ramping up production of its first model, the Lucid Air. Importantly, the company didn't change its full-year guidance for vehicle shipments from the 6,000 to 7,000 cars it told investors to expect back in August. The prior guidance, given in May, was for 12,000 to 14,000 units.

    What seems to be raising investors' eyebrows is that management says Lucid has 34,000 reservations for its vehicles. The number given in August was 37,000.

    Shares were down 3% in after-hours trading.

    Lucid delivered 1,398 vehicles in the third quarter, up from 679 in the second quarter of 2022. Lucid produced 2,282 vehicles in the third quarter, which was more than triple the second-quarter production, according to the company.

    The company also ended the quarter with almost $4 billion in cash.

    Management scheduled a conference call for 5:30 p.m. Eastern time to discuss the results. Investors and analysts will be interested in the reservation number and whatever management has to say about demand for Lucid vehicles.

    Through Tuesday trading, Lucid stock was off more than 60% so far this year, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average had dropped about 20% and 9%, respectively.

    Lucid stock has been hit harder than most. The cut to the forecast for deliveries didn't help. Rising interest rates, which reduce the current, discounted value of earnings expected to arrive in coming years, are an additional problem.

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    Jeffrey Gundlach with David Rosenberg 10-11-22 Podcast

    This video is a little outdated, particularly with regard to crypto, but it does highlight the fact bond investors finally have a yield they can base a total return strategy on. 

    Bond king Jeffrey Gundlach says any year-end stock market rally is going to be derailed by intense tax-loss selling

    This article from Business Insider may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    So most investors, whether they own stocks or bonds, should have plenty of opportunities to harvest losses between now and the end of the year. And that means there will be more selling pressure ahead.

    "There will be pretty high tax loss selling I would think. I even got a white paper from somebody saying this was the greatest tax loss selling opportunity of a generation. I would say it might be two generations," Gundlach said.

    Tax-loss selling is a tax optimization strategy that investors and financial advisors often take advantage of in taxable accounts heading into year-end. The strategy involves realizing losses by selling out of losing positions, and then buying back those portfolio positions 31 days later to avoid the tax wash-sale rule.

    The strategy allows investors to realize losses that can offset future realized gains, ultimately helping reduce tax liabilities in the long term.

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    Meta Plummets as Capex Plans Spur Downgrades

    This note may be of interest to subscribers. Here are some relevant quotes:

    Jefferies (buy, PT $200)
    There are “no signs of expense discipline,” and this is “going against what investors want”

    Vital Knowledge
    The expense outlook is “the big negative” of the report; “investors were hoping for mgmt. to aggressively slash costs, but it doesn’t seem like that’s happening”

    The results and outlook “weren’t great, but neither was any worse than SNAP or GOOGL”

    Truist Securities (buy, PT $240)
    The revenue outlook is “still decent all things considered,” but the guidance for total expenses is “materially higher than our estimate”

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    Mexico's Economy Surprises With Fastest Expansion in Over a Year

    This article for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    The result was “solid” and leaves Mexico’s economic growth at a pace of 2.2% for the year, according to Alberto Ramos, Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s chief Latin America economist. 

    “The economy still has room to grow, and we expect it to expand in coming quarters supported by firm terms of trade and further normalization of activity among a number of still lagging sectors, particularly services,” he wrote in a research note Friday. 

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    GM Rides Full-Size Pickups, Luxury SUVs to Big Earnings Beat

    This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    “We’re delivering on our commitments and affirming our full-year guidance despite a challenging environment because demand continues to be strong for GM products and we are actively managing the headwinds we face,” GM Chief Executive Officer Mary Barra said in a letter to shareholders.

    Shares of the carmaker rose 2% to $36.45 as of 9:35 a.m. in New York. The stock is down about 38% this year. 

    GM reported adjusted profit of $2.25 a share on Tuesday, surpassing analysts’ projection for $1.89 a share. It also maintained guidance for full-year adjusted earnings before interest and taxes of $13 billion to $15 billion, or $6.50 to $7.50 a share. 

    “GM yet again affirmed the strong and until now mostly disbelieved full-year total company EBIT outlook it has maintained since introduction in February,” J.P. Morgan analyst Ryan Brinkman said in a research note. “GM is now well on the path to achieving its full year goals, despite the tougher consumer and cost backdrop.”

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