David Fuller and Eoin Treacy's Comment of the Day
Category - Autonomies

    Email of the day on Energy, Bank Capital & Cars

    Have you noticed US oil producers are having trouble capitalising on these higher global Oil prices.  We both agree the world needs a cheap energy.  I think it is unlikely that cheap energy source will be conventional or unconventional Oil and Gas.  My concern is that cheap energy solution may take another 10 years to materialise.

    I still think European banking looks like Zombie banking.  We know European banks have capital deficiencies.  I think these banks are holding back a broad recovery in the European economy.  My sources continue to tell me European banks are still trying to shrink balance sheets.  I believe the ECB needs to be more proactive in solving this problem.  I see ECB is talking of QE - I am not sure this idea is the solution more likely the problem.   However the bank capital dilemma needs to be addressed quickly otherwise Europe faces a possible Japanese situation of low growth for decades.

    Like you I am a strong believer in the big European global business brands and product solutions.  However the availability of credit is stifling growth in Europe's smaller companies and businesses.   From what I observe VW increasingly looks like it is going to dominate the global car industry.  Unless Toyota can catch up in this technology race they will lose their cherished Crown of the dominate global car producer.  As for old world car companies Ford , GM etc. sadly they look like a great short to me.  Every time I hire rental car in the US I come away with the thought how do US car companies do it so badly and remain in business.  I don't expect US cars to handle like my Porsche but US cars are just plain scary to drive.

    Please keep up the good service.

    Read entire article

    Bitter Taste of Cadbury Guides U.K. Stance on Pfizer-AstraZeneca

    This article by Thomas Penny for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers .Here is a section: 

    Even after Pfizer’s 63.1 billion-pound ($106.5 billion) sweetened offer for AstraZeneca was rejected, the government said it was pressing Pfizer for assurances on jobs and the U.K.’s place as a center for the life-sciences industry. The government will carefully weigh Pfizer’s proposals to see “whether they offer sufficient protection of our priorities,” Cameron’s office said today.

    Read entire article

    Review of European oil majors

    Short Term Oil Market Outlook - Thanks to a subscriber for this informative report from DNB which may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section: 

    The geopolitical price premium started to blow out as the market started fearing shut out oil from Russia related to the Ukraine crisis. What if Russian troops really enter the eastern parts of Ukraine and the western powers are forced to impose much stricter sanctions towards Russia. Will oil be part of any sanctions from the western powers? Will Russia be able/willing to use oil as a weapon to retaliate stricter western sanctions?

    These mentioned worries have led to financial players adding to their net long oil holdings in the Brent market since the start of April. The buying pressure has come both from adding new long positions but also from squaring short positions as can be seen in the graph below. Money Managers have rarely held fewer short positions in Brent futures and also rarely held more long positions. This close to record net length in Brent futures held by financial players always represent a downside risk for oil prices in the short term. During the last 15 months we have had two major sell-offs of net long positions by these kinds of players. We had one last year from mid-February that lasted into April which chopped 18 $/b off the Brent price and we had one in September-November last year that shaved 10 $/b off the Brent price. As we are again close to record net length held by these players this is a large bearish mark in our score card for the short term (reverse indicator). The longer the net length held by Money Managers the larger the short term downside risk.

     

    Read entire article

    Africa: A ripe opportunity

    Understanding the pharmaceutical market opportunity and developing sustainable business models in Africa This report by IMS Health is highly educative and I regard it as a must read for anyone interested in Africa. Here is a section:

    By 2016, pharmaceutical spending in Africa is expected to reach US$30 billion.  This value is driven by a 10.6% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2016, second only to Asia Pacific (12.5%) and in line with Latin America (10.5%) during this period. Spurred by a convergence of demographic changes, increased wealth and healthcare investment, and rising demand for drugs to treat chronic diseases, this market potentially represents a US$45 billion opportunity by 2020. 

    The pharmaceutical growth is a reflection of economic strength accompanied by increasing healthcare spending. Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), excluding South Africa, is notable in this regard: according to the Economist Intelligence Unit, its economies are growing faster than anywhere else in the world and this trend is expected to continue.

    The appeal of Africa lies not in its size – the continent accounts for just 3% of the global economy – but in the dynamics that drive sustainable growth at a time when the major established pharmaceutical markets face a more uncertain future. Underpinning these prospects are a series of positive economic trends: greater political and fiscal stability and improvements in pro-business legislation have led the United Nations (UN) to forecast that Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Africa could more than double by 2014, despite speculative money leaving the continent following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, and the Arab Spring restricting investment in North Africa.

    This FDI is fuelling macroeconomic growth and vastly improving access to new technology. The recent boom in mobile subscribers reflects this trend: as of mid-2012, there were more than 600 million mobile subscribers on the continent, surpassing American and European figures. At the same time, major demographic shifts show an increasing number of working-age Africans, a rising middle class which accounts for 34% of the continent’s inhabitants, and an urban population expected to exceed that of China’s and India’s by 2050.

     

    Read entire article

    Corporate America From GE to Apple Puts $2 Trillion Cash to Work

    This article by Richard Clough for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section: 

    “Corporations are flush with cash and are beginning to pick up M&A activity as well as share buybacks and dividend increases,” said Eric Teal, who helps oversee $3.5 billion as chief investment officer of First Citizens BancShares Inc. in Raleigh, North Carolina. “These activities will continue.”

    The cash pile reached $2.02 trillion in the latest quarterly filings of 2,300 non-financial companies in the Russell 3000 Index, according to the data compiled by Bloomberg as of April 21. The total rose about 13 percent from a year earlier in each of the two latest quarters, the fastest six- month gain since mid-2011. For comparison, Russia’s annual gross domestic product was about $2.01 trillion last year.

     

    Read entire article

    Email of the day on the health of the global middle class

    Mining Equity Outlook Q2/14 - Seasonality Buy in June Then Sell in September?

    Thanks to a subscriber for this report from BMO which may be of interest. Here is a section on valuations:

    BMO Research expects 42% of the 136 stocks in its mining coverage universe to generate free cash flow in 2014E. In 2015E, the percentage is expected to increase to 56% of the entire stock coverage.

    BMO Research recommendations tend to reflect a preference for strong free cash flow generation at spot commodity prices.

    Iron ore and steel, then aluminum and diversified miners have the strongest FCF for 2014-2015E; coal, diamonds and copper have the weakest using spot.

    Price to Net Present Value
    BMO Research mining stocks demonstrate a wide range of price to net present value multiples when calculated using a 10% discount rate and spot commodity prices. A number of companies trade at high multiples due to high debt or low project value while others trade at lower multiples reflecting political or execution risk.

    Steel, iron ore, diamonds and copper stocks miners have the most attractive valuations using spot prices.

    Price to Earnings
    BMO Research estimates for 2014E price to earnings at spot prices display a wide range of results. In general, most of the diversified, copper, iron ore, and steel producers tend to cluster around 10-15x EPS, while precious metal producers average around 25-35x EPS.

    At spot prices, many coal, uranium, and aluminum producers would not be expected to report meaningful earnings

    Enterprise Value to EBITDA
    Enterprise Value to EBITDA results appear much more consistent than EPS measures with the distribution of company multiples clustered closer to sector averages.

    Diversifieds, iron ore, steel, diamond and larger copper companies tend to trade around 5x 2014E EBITDA at spot prices.

    Copper developers, senior gold producers, and silver companies are generally observed at 5-10x EBITDA with relatively few exceptions. Uranium, coal, and PGM stocks appear the most expensive.

    Read entire article

    Email of the day on Campari

    Hello, could Campari quoted on the Italian stock exchange be considered a potential autonomy?

    Read entire article

    Big data: The nex frontier for innovation, competition, and productivity

    Thanks to a subscriber for this report from McKinsey which is just as relevant today as when it was first issued in 2011, when we first posted it. Here is a section:

    Health care is a large and important segment of the US economy that faces tremendous productivity challenges. It has multiple and varied stakeholders, including the pharmaceutical and medical products industries, providers, payors, and patients. Each of these has different interests and business incentives while still being closely intertwined. Each generates pools of data, but they have typically remained unconnected from each other. A significant portion of clinical data is not yet digitized. There is a substantial opportunity to create value if these pools of data can be digitized, combined, and used effectively. However, the incentives to leverage big data in this sector are often out of alignment, offering an instructive case on the sector-wide interventions that can be necessary to capture value.

    The public sector is another large part of the global economy facing tremendous pressure to improve its productivity. Governments have access to large pools of digital data but, in general, have hardly begun to take advantage of the powerful ways in which they could use this information to improve performance and transparency. We chose to study the administrative parts of government. This is a domain where there is a great deal of data, which gives us the opportunity to draw analogies with processes in other knowledge worker industries such as claims processing in insurance.

    In contrast to the first two domains, retail is a sector in which some players have been using big data for some time for segmenting customers and managing supply chains. Nevertheless, there is still tremendous upside potential across the industry for individual players to expand and improve their use of big data, particularly given the increasing ease with which they can collect information on their consumers, suppliers, and inventories.

     

    Read entire article