David Fuller and Eoin Treacy's Comment of the Day
Category - Autonomies

    MasterCard Net Income Misses Estimates as Expenses Increase

    This article by Elizabeth Dexheimer for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section: 

    Operating expenses, excluding a one-time charge related to settling merchant litigation, climbed 11 percent to $1.1 billion from $966 million a year earlier, according to the statement. MasterCard spent more on rebates and incentives tied to signing deals with card issuers, the firm said.

    “The notorious lumpy rebate line was even higher than expected," said Jason Kupferberg, an analyst at Jefferies Group LLC in a note. "Our initial look shows no reason for significant concern. We view the pullback as an especially good buying opportunity."

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    Sudden HSBC, Diageo Swings Spur Speculation of Trading Error

    This article by Inyoung Hwang, Howard Mustoe and Sarah Jones for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    The moves in HSBC and Diageo were large enough to trigger trading halts designed to prevent excessive volatility. U.S. exchanges introduced circuit breakers in June 2010 on individual securities that temporarily pause stocks across markets when shares move 10 percent in five minutes. The rule, since modified, was implemented in response to the May 2010 crash that erased $862 billion in equity values in 20 minutes.

    An LSE spokesperson declined to comment on the moves in HSBC and Diageo shares. Donal McCarthy, a spokesman for HSBC in London, and Diageo’s Camille Dor declined to comment.

    “Both cases bear the traditional hallmarks of a ‘fat finger’, as the stock prices quickly corrected themselves,” Saul Taylor, vice president and equity trader at ConvergEx Ltd. In London, said in an interview today. “It is highly likely that a trader, with direct-market access to the LSE, released large orders at market, in error.”

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    GE CEO Immelt Urges More Private Investment in Africa Health Care

    This article by Charles Wachira for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section: 

    Health-care expenditure in Kenya grew faster than the overall economy in the first decade of this century, driven mainly by private sources, according to Open Capital Advisors, a Nairobi-based financial-services company. Government spending on health care accounts for only one-third of total health expenditure, down from 45 percent in 2000, according to its website. Private spending on health care is expected to total as much as $3.1 billion by 2025, Open Capital said in 2012.

    Kenya's government last week approved a plan to lease equipment for public hospitals and improve infrastructure under a public-private partnership model. The project will provide critical care services in a country that has only 64 public intensive-care unit beds, compared with a requirement of 670 beds, the cabinet said in a statement on Jan. 23.

     

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    Email of the day on the 3rd Industrial Revolution

    The email of the day yesterday on global macro outlook (plus Eoin’s reply) prompted me to write my thoughts on whether high tech is played out. Actually I think just the opposite. In agreement with David and Eoin, I believe we are in the early stage of massive new growth generated by breakthroughs in technology.

    A year ago I attended and presented at a conference in New York City entitled “Are You Ready for the Third Industrial Revolution?” While preparing my presentation I did a lot of research on factors that drive an industrial revolution. I’ll summarize here for the sake of brevity, but I think one can identify three main themes: a new more efficient energy source, improved communication/transport systems, and improved financial structures.

    In the first industrial revolution, innovations in England from approximately 1790 led to the replacement of wood power by coal power; new transport systems based on steam-power initially for boats on canals followed by the first railways; steam-power drove the first mass printing presses which led to mass education for the first time in human history; and a new financial model based on the first stock exchange initially out of Lyons coffee house on the Stand in London.

    The second industrial revolution, a century later, was jointly driven by US and European inventors. It followed a similar pattern, with oil replacing the less-efficient coal; development of new transport based on the internal combustion engine out of Europe with Messers Daimler and Benz being the most notable contributors; the building of mass transport highways for the first time, electrification of cities driven by the incredible inventiveness of Thomas Edison; and a new financial breakthrough in the form of the limited liability company.

    So, where are we in the third industrial revolution? One of the three factors that drive an industrial revolution must be clear to us all. We all use it every day. The internet is a massive breakthrough in communications. It is now linking all humanity instantaneously for the first time. The impact on communication efficiency, spread of ideas, synergy of creativity globally, and global education is already very clear. At the time of the conference last year I was less sure about the second factor, a new energy source. Gas is a stopgap in my mind, a last play on the hydrocarbon theme, though likely to be very significant in coming decades in driving down energy costs. But over the past year my reading around solar power has convinced me that it is just about ready to make a major impact. The efficiency of capture of sunlight was until recently in the 10% range and depended on expensive ingredients in the panels. But breakthroughs in graphene technology suggest that 50-100% capture efficiency is achievable and the materials will be very low cost. The impact could be absolutely incredible. (Think through all the ways it could change energy generation and usage. Thankfully, it will soon bypass windmills and other “green” energy sources currently in vogue).

    The third factor, innovation in our financial system, is a clear need and currently unsolved. I am wondering whether crowd-funding is part of the answer at least, and I have personally invested Angel money in helping build one company here in the UK.

    Finally, one additional point is worth making. Eoin hinted at this in his response yesterday to the email of the day. He was referring to medical breakthroughs (my own field of work) but his comment is applicable to all fields I believe. New technologies take a long time to develop to a level of real usefulness and payback. I did a lot of research on this over a decade ago and I gave public presentations and published research papers on this matter. All the evidence is that it takes 15-25 years for any new technology to get to the "payback” phase. This seems to apply to all technologies in all fields. Moreover, the eventual real value of a new technology may not be obvious at first, and it may differ from the intentions of the original innovators.

    Personally, I have been building a second investment portfolio alongside my usual “trend-following” portfolio. I have been buying ”Third Industrial Revolution” companies, those that are driving the revolution, mostly in the USA and UK. By applying trend-following principles in selecting when to buy I have achieved gains of 10%-70% for over 20 companies over the past year. It is really interesting to build such a portfolio as it makes one very aware of the incredible breakthroughs and moreover keeps one very positive about the future! If other members of the collective are building such portfolios it would be interesting to share ideas and experience.

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    AB InBev to Pay $5.8 Billion for Korean Oriental Brewery

    This article by Frank Longid and Clementine Fletcher for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section: 

    “On the surface, the deal seems odd as they’re paying more than three times for Oriental than what they sold the business for five years ago," said Pablo Zuanic, an analyst at Liberum Capital. “However, this signals to us they see growth in South Korea -- not so much in terms of market growth, but to improve share and drive the penetration of Budweiser and Corona.”

    Korea’s beer market has grown about 2 percent a year from 2009 through 2012, the companies said. AB InBev plans to further develop Cass as well as throw its marketing support behind brands including Budweiser, Corona and Hoegaarden in the market.

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    Email of the day on the global macro outlook

    Liked your weekly commentary today especially the summary on Gold.  I have made money on gold and I don't wish to chase that market again.  

    Now you keep talking regulary about innovation and technology.   As you are probably aware you are in conflict with the Harvard University Economic academic's view of technology and innovation.  They hold we are well past the big innovation gains from technology especially IT technology.  In fact these bunch of academics seem to beleive these innovation benefits ended at the turn of the last century i.e. 2000.  There message appears to be that the last decade has simply delivered fancy hardware / software toys that have offered business no productivity tools.   Mums and dads may like these toys but for business they are just staff time wasters.

    I do beleive medical science has much to offer mankind in the future.  However that picture is a bit cloudy also.   Utilizing any new innovations seems to be determined by price.   My son Keith (has a PhD in genetics worked for Merrill Lynch) now works for a medical services company running the cancer treatment businesses.  He is some what cautious on medical innovation.  He sees government unwilling to embrace new technology unless their is a demonstrated cost saving to the government.  As he points out this is not always easy to demonstrate.

    We all know US medical Insurance companies are also capping not premiums but the medical services they will offer to their insured patients.   We also here in Australia see lots of pressure from government to cap the more expensive medical procedures.  This must ultimately slow innovation in medical science.   The largest shareholder in the company Keith works for is no other than KKR who own a bit over 50% of the business.

    Fridays profit warning from Royal Dutch Shell seems to suggest at least some of the dumb money must now be looking closely at getting out of the "Fracking" business.  Let's see if the other big dumb money provider in BHP also throws in the towel on what I see as a very stupid business.  I am not environmentalist this is just about a reasonable return on capital.

    I listened to a Economist speaking on oil on Bloomberg the other night. He had a cautious view on Oil prices saying its always priced at the marginal producers cost structure I.e the fractures cost as we all know.  The dumb money frackers must be getting increasingly sick of this profit-less business.  I know Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia etc, etc are not going ignore 1,000 years of hating and killing one another.  The Libyan oil fields now producing 200,000 to 300,000 barrels a day are not going to revert overnight to again produce 1.8 million barrels a day.  Try talking to an oil geologists how hard it is to get an oil well flowing again.  This is an extremelly challenging task.  Lastly the US embraces Iran nuclear industry and all is forgiven about the Bush Evil Empire statement.  Somehow I don't think it's that easy.   The oil business is challenging. 

    You are right the RBA is on the sell side of the AUD.  As to the future level of the AUD local economists are very worried.  They fear when we shortly become a very large energy exporter the AUD will come under pressure to rise.  This will make most other local export industries uneconomic.  There was a comment on Bloomberg the other night from a US oil company that said the oil business is now too expensive and costly.   That LNG is the go and forget the US, go straight to Australia where it is cheaper and easier.  True I am not making this up.

    Perhaps we can talk more about these big picture matters at the Sydney conference.

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    Saxo Banks Fat Tail Predictions for 2014

    Thanks to a subscriber for this interesting compilation of contrarian opinions which may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section on a number of high flying technology companies:

    The US information technology sector is trading about 15 percent below the current S&P 500 valuation, which is in sharp contrast to the historical premium of approximately 160 percent during the dotcom bubble. We like technology stocks in general as they are the main driver of the necessary productivity growth the economy needs to create long-term increases in wealth per capita.

    However, a small group of technology stocks trade at a huge premium of about 700 percent above market valuation, almost defying the “Newtonian laws” of financial markets. These stocks are what we call the “Fat Five” of the technology sector” Amazon, Netflix, Twitter, Pandora Media and Yelp. These stocks have very inflated valuations based on a skewed valuation premium on growth that has evolved in the aftermath of the financial crisis. Investors have trouble finding good growth scenarios, so when some suddenly drop by the neighbourhood, they get bid up to levels that present very poor risk/reward ratios. It is like a new bubble within an old bubble.

    Facebook’s USD 3 billion cash offer for Snapchat, declined by its 23-year-old founder, is the ultimate display of hubris that shows how exuberance has grown to new levels in this part of the technology sector. Snapchat has zero revenue and does not have a business model, so the acquisition value is not determined by incremental cash flow to Facebook, but from the potential destruction value to Facebook based on assumptions about wider adoption of Snapchat.

    This creative destruction is exactly the “dark matter” that should make investors cautious about the huge valuation premium that is currently being put on this small group within the information technology sector. To trade this, we would create a synthetic equal-weighted index of the Fat Five, starting at 100 on the last trading day of 2013. Our Outrageous Prediction is that this index will go to 50 during 2014.

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    Emerging Markets Dodge Fed Tapering in Best Bond-Sale Start

    Here is the opening from this informative report by Bloomberg:

    Borrowers in developing nations are flooding markets with a record amount of bonds before reductions to Federal Reserve monetary stimulus drive up funding costs.

    International sales in emerging markets are up 21 percent to $55 billion this month, the busiest start to a year since Bloomberg began tracking the data in 1999. Poland is marketing $2 billion of 2024 bonds today after the European Union’s largest eastern economy raised 2 billion euros ($2.7 billion) last week. Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PETR4), Latin America’s largest oil producer, has sold the most debt among 108 issuers with a $5.1 billion offering of euro- and pound-denominated securities.

    Companies and governments in developing countries are seeking to pre-empt any rise in borrowing costs that could result from the next round of tapering by the Fed, which decided in December to trim monthly bond purchases by $10 billion to $75 billion. U.S. policy makers next meet Jan. 28-29.

    “Issuers want to tap the market now as they fear that Fed tapering and a rise in U.S. Treasury yields will lift their own funding costs,” Regis Chatellier, a London-based director of emerging-markets credit strategy at Societe Generale SA, said by e-mail yesterday. “They simply don’t want to take that risk. So I expect new issuance to remain strong, for now.”

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    Nu Skin Plunges After China Says It Will Probe Its Operations

    This article by Lauren Coleman-Lochner and Rachel Butt for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section: 

    Scott Van Winkle, an analyst at Canaccord Genuity Inc., today cut his recommendation on the stock to hold, from buy, saying the Chinese market is large enough to significantly affect Nu Skin's results and valuation.

    Network marketers such as Nu Skin have always been questioned, "causing outsized share price movements," Olivia Tong, an analyst at Bank of America Corp., wrote in a note yesterday. "There does not seem to be tangible evidence to validate negative claims targeted at the company thus far".

     

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