Read entire articleAppendix 3: Seriously, what are you talking about? My search results are perfect.
If you think your search results are perfect (without appending reddit), then you're probably right. If every single person agreed that Google search results were trash, then Google would already be bankrupt.
Perhaps it is more likely that 80% of people think Google is good enough, and 20% think Google sucks.
I do suspect that the 20% will be growing in number though.
Appendix 4: *Yawn*, this is the 87th time someone has claimed that Google search is dying in the last 20 years. This is a big meme in the SEO world.
"The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated" - Google, probably
You're right, there's been a new article bashing Google every few months for the last 20 years straight. It's probably nothing.
Still, it is a bit interesting that this short and simple post is now one of the most upvoted things of all time on Hacker News. There must be a lot of people who resonate with it this time around.
Hard to tell if something significant has changed.
Appendix 5: Random redditor explains it succinctly
u/a_latvian_potato:
I think I understand what this article is trying to say. It's not saying that Google's search technology is worse or that people don't use Google to search. It's saying that people trust less of the results Google shows compared to seeing discussions of it on Reddit.
For instance, if I'm looking to see reviews of the Honda Civic 2022 or whatever, I do find myself typing "Honda Civic review reddit" instead of "Honda Civic review". This is because I want to see what real people and enthusiasts (on r/cars or whatever) are talking about the car, rather than the top results at Google which are basically just paid reviews advertising the car anyway.
Even though I kinda know people in Reddit are just as capable of spouting BS that are completely wrong, I find the discussions more authentic anyway than the corporate speak the "big websites" have on their articles that Google shows me.
David Fuller and Eoin Treacy's Comment of the Day
Category - Autonomies
Google Search Is Dying
This article from dkb.io may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
Email of the day - on gold, governance, trading, and uncertainty
Read entire articleA bad back currently prevents me golfing, walking the dog, or driving the car and, in my opinion justifiably, I am feeling a grumpy.
So here are a few gripes for you:
First gold:
For several years you taught us that the gold price follows an approximate 35-year cycle between highs, although the gold price could outpace stock indexes for short periods in between those highs. We’ve not heard too much about the 35-year cycle for a while, the message now being that it is not unusual for gold to trade in a boring range for up to 18 months or so before breaking out conclusively up or down. You believe it will break to the upside taking out previous highs (which runs contrary to your 35-year cycle theory). I hold a fair chunk of gold and silver miners in ETFs but regard the holding as a hedge rather than representing a belief that gold will imminently break to the upside. It might and it would be nice if it did but I doubt it. As David said, investment options are similar to a beauty parade and for the foreseeable future, many options are likely to look superior to gold.Second India v China:
You are very hard on China and its political system. Having lived most of my life in Asia I take a less severe view. Like most observers I was disappointed to see that XI, the reformer, had no intention of political reform but on reflection, I think he’s probably right to opt for political stability at a time when China is still struggling to bring modernity to all its people and regions; when lightening-speed technological change is taking place across the globe and when it finds itself in an inevitable struggle to assert what it regards as its rightful influence on global institutions and practices. On a smaller scale in Singapore Lee Kuan Yew did much the same thing and while there is now a little more political tolerance in Singapore than there was, the Government – and most of its people – believe that full-throated democracy would lead to economic and societal break-down. That would be Xi’s worst nightmare.My grouse is not so much with your view on China but with your uncritical view of India. I agree with you that India should do well given its demographic advantage and talents of its people. However, I think the Modi government is quite repugnant in its covert – and not so covert – support of extremist Hindu nationalism represented by terrorisation of the Muslim and Christian communities, and by its appalling failure to do much about the abuse of women, also fuelled by Hindu extremists. In the medium term, I fear this, together with over-dependence on coal, will limit India’s investment appeal and therefore its economic potential.
To declare my investment positions, I have reduced my exposure to India and wait for an opportunity to reinvest in China. My favourite Asian market currently is Vietnam.
Third, the purpose of your ‘service’:
Under David’s direction, Fuller Money provided objective macro oversights together with some trading suggestions/recommendations and some investment suggestions/recommendations. He often put his money where his mouth was and invested in his recommendations. Towards the end of his career, he stopped publishing his investment portfolio which I regarded as a pity. Under your direction, Fuller-Treacy Money continues to provide objective (if sometimes convoluted and long-winded) macro oversights, but I find it difficult to work out whether beyond that you are offering trading hints or investment hints. I use the word ‘hints’ rather than ‘suggestions’ because in this aspect you are far more non-committal on specifics than was David. The details you provide of your own investment activities suggest that you are a trader with long(ish) term investments in gold bullion, gold miners and Rolls Royce. I made several profitable purchases based on David’s recommendations but so far have identified none under your watch.Fourth Daily Audio and Video:
From emails you have referred to from other subscribers, I am confident that I am not alone in being irritated by several of your constant refrains. Three which particularly annoy me are ‘The big question is ….’ (to which we never get an answer); ‘[Gold (for example) has a lot of work to do’ (which is a nonsense, better to identify factors which might influence buying/selling decisions) and; ‘I can’t talk and chew gum at the same time’ (which sounds quite catchy heard for the first time, but grates increasingly after many repetitions).So, getting that off my chest makes me feel slightly less out of sorts. I shall be renewing my subscription in March. It’s been part of my routine for too long.
Secular Themes Review February 4th 2022
Meta Faces Historic Stock Rout After Facebook Growth Stalled
This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-02/facebook-shares-plunge-as-users-stall-forecast-falls-short?sref=g4EhC0E7
Read entire articleThis quarter’s sales forecast also disappointed Wall Street and Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg, who saw his personal wealth potentially plummet about $24 billion, acknowledged that Meta is facing serious competition for user time and attention, particularly from viral video-sharing app TikTok.
The dour outlook and stalled user momentum mark a dramatic turnaround for a company that has posted share gains in every year but one since its 2012 IPO, stoking concern that Meta Platforms flagship product and core advertising moneymaker has plateaued after years of consistent gains.
“These cuts run deep,” wrote Michael Nathanson, an analyst at brokerage Moffett Nathanson, who titled his note “Facebook: The Beginning of the End?” The results were “a headline grabber
and not in a good way.” Zuckerberg said Meta’s rival to TikTok, Reels, is growing quickly, but monetization has been slow. He asked investors for patience as the product ramps up.
“Over time we think that there is potential for a tremendous amount of overall engagement growth” with Reels, he said on a conference call Wednesday. “We think it’s definitely the right thing to lean into this and push as hard to grow Reels as quickly as possible and not hold on the brakes at all, even though it may create some near-term slower growth than we would have wanted.”
The New Agri-Giant Invading the U.S. Heartland
This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
Read entire articleViterra is already the world’s largest wheat trader, thanks to its investments in major exporting regions including Canada, Australia, Argentina, and the former Soviet Union. If Gavilon in the U.S. is added to that impressive portfolio, it will be the kind of concentration — and power — that governments worry about. Indeed, Beijing may be even more concerned about the deal than Washington. China, which is spending billions of dollars to build its own state-owned agricultural trading house, is unlikely to welcome further consolidation in an industry it relies on to feed more than one billion people.
Regulatory concerns aside, the deal is a steal. Glencore, founded by the late U.S. fugitive Marc Rich in the 1970s, built its agribusiness through acquisitions. In 2012, it beat out ADM and purchased Canadian grain trader Viterra Inc. for 6.1 billion Canadian Dollars ($4.8 billion). Today, Glencore controls just under 50% of the enlarged Viterra business, with 49% owned by two Canadian pension funds and a residual percentage controlled by the staff.
Microsoft's Shares Gain on Forecast For Azure Cloud Growth
This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
Read entire articleMicrosoft Corp. shares rose in early trading on Wednesday after the software giant gave a forecast that reassured investors the company’s Azure cloud-computing business still has potential to drive growth. The company predicted Azure’s revenue growth rate would pick up in the fiscal third quarter from the second, excluding the impact of currency fluctuations. The stock gained about 5% in premarket trading in New York. “This will help calm Street tech growth worries,” said Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush.
Microsoft’s fiscal second-quarter earnings report on Tuesday showed sales that topped $50 billion for the first time and profit that exceeded analysts’ estimates, fueled by cloud, gaming and Windows software. But Azure revenue, up 46% in the period, decelerated from recent quarters and missed analysts’ rosiest estimates, sending the stock tumbling before executives issued a more optimistic forecast for the business later in the afternoon.
Logical inconsistencies
U.S. Five-Year Yield Highest Since February 2020 in Bond Selloff
This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
Read entire articleTreasury yields rose a second day, with five-year rates hitting the highest since before the pandemic took hold in the U.S., amid increasing conviction that the Federal Reserve will raise rates at least three times beginning in May.
The five-year Treasury note’s yield climbed as much as 3.8 basis points to 1.392%, the highest since Feb. 20, 2020, while 30-year yields bumped up toward their 200-day moving average.
Yields across the curve are rising for a second straight day, after Monday’s selloff lifted the 10-year note’s yield by nearly 12 basis points in its worst start to a year since 2009. The two-year yield topped 0.80% for the first time since March 2020.
That move rippled through markets from Australia to the U.K., where bond trading resumed after a holiday on Monday. Australian 10-year yields jumped as much as 15 basis points to 1.82%, the highest since Nov. 26. Yields on the same U.K. tenor surged as much as 10 basis points to 1.07%, the highest since Nov. 3.
Bitcoin: All the Volatility But Less Upside Than Ether
This note from Bloomberg’s macro blog may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
Read entire articleYesterday, Apple became the first $3 trillion company after rising some 40% in the past year. Meanwhile Bitcoin rose just 38% in that same time frame, but with a lot more volatility. That puts Bitcoin -- the granddaddy of the crypto market -- in an uncomfortable position. It offers all the volatility downside risks of cryptocurrencies but smaller returns than its peers.
Gains in this latest Bitcoin halving cycle have been much reduced. The pace of Bitcoin issuance declines by half every four years in what is known as a “halving”. And that increased scarcity is a large part of the cryptocurrency’s appeal. But, as my colleague Joe Weisenthal just pointed out, Bitcoin has appreciated about 250% in this past cycle, whereas in the 2013 to 2017 halving the gains were 1600% and a gargantuan 2,000,000% in the first halving cycle from 2009 to 2003. And in 2021, the rise in Ether, the second most-valuable cryptocurrency, far outpaced Bitcoin, buoyed by its use in decentralized finance and the NFT market.
So Bitcoin is a very volatile asset, with two drawdowns over 30% in 2021 alone, while still underperforming even Apple, the world’s largest company and one of the most liquid equity securities.
On the other hand, if you’re looking for big returns, you’re not looking at Bitcoin either. Not only did Ether outperform Bitcoin by a large margin but the ‘altcoin’ Binance Coin, the next largest cryptocurrency, outperformed both with a 1300% gain.
And now Ether is worth $455 million to Bitcoin’s market cap just shy of $900 million. Maybe 2022 will be the year Bitcoin loses its crown as the largest cryptocurrency.