This article by Alberto Brambilla and Jonathan Levin for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
The ship was bound for La Spezia in the Liguria region, with 1,000 crew and 6,000 passengers, 750 of whom came from China, a port spokesman said.
This article by James Hirai and Hannah Benjamin for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
The order deluge meant Austria joined the likes of Spain and Italy in setting demand records this month as investors chase the safety of bonds. Fears that the spread of the coronavirus will derail an economic recovery have sent yields tumbling, fueling a huge jump in the world’s stockpile of
negative-yielding bonds.Austria’s Treasury ended up placing 3 billion euros of the 10-year bonds Wednesday with a yield of minus 0.111%. For investors, that’s still more appealing than equivalent German debt trading at around minus 0.40%. The European Central Bank has a minus 0.50% deposit facility rate.
“Despite the negative interest rate, the issue was met with very strong demand and the transaction was 10-times oversubscribed,” Markus Stix, managing director of Austria’s Treasury, said in a statement.
Thanks to a subscriber for this article from Blackstone which may be of interest. Here is a section:
The bond market has confounded investors for the past several years as rates have declined or stayed low when almost everyone expected them to rise. The consensus now is that there won’t be much change in intermediate rates this year, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remaining about 2% because the economy is sluggish and inflation continues to be low. While we agree that traditional economic factors will not drive rates higher, we believe supply and demand will play an important role. The big buyers at the Treasury auctions are the Social Security Administration, the Federal Reserve, Japan and China. The Federal Reserve will probably do some buying, but we should realize that their bond ownership has climbed recently from $3.8 trillion to $4.2 trillion, even as the Fed’s stated objective has been to shrink its balance sheet. China and Japan have been upset with Trump’s trade policy and have been less-than-enthusiastic buyers at recent auctions. The Social Security Administration, which has been a perennial buyer of Treasuries, may pull back since its benefits payments will exceed its inflows in 2020. These conditions suggest to us that the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury will move somewhat higher to 2.5% during the year, and that is the ninth Surprise.
Midst all the alarm regarding corona virus, I was surprised that the financial media has paid so little attention to the following: https://thesoundingline.com/feds-balance-sheet-has-shrunk-20-billion-since-the-start-of-january/
If an over-extended was looking for an excuse to correct, surely this was it!
Your comment would be appreciated.
This article by Christopher Condon and Sarina Yoo for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
Economists had a broad range of forecasts for when the Fed would stop buying Treasury bills, though June 2020 received the highest response at 43%. Respondents overwhelmingly expected officials will taper the monthly purchases rather than stop them suddenly. The Fed has been buying $60 billion in T-bills each month since October.
A scarcity of bank reserves was blamed for an unexpected spike in overnight funding rates in September. This led the fed funds rate to stray briefly out of its target range. The new cash created by the Fed’s T-bill purchases has since relieved that scarcity. The Fed, intent on ensuring an ample supply of reserves, has said it will continue the purchases at least into the second quarter.
This article by Jim Bianco for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
Unfortunately, the Fed made a critical design error in its daily interventions. They are offering to supply repo to the dealers at prevailing market rates. In other words, they are giving the dealers every incentive to take repo from the Fed as opposed to the market. In essence, the Fed has become the lender of first resort when it should be the lender of last resort and offer repo at a penalty rate. The Fed should be willing to help a dealer in need, but it should come at a price.
So, after four months of these Fed repo operations, new problems are emerging. More specifically, the Fed might be going too far and oversupplying this market. The effective federal funds rate is signaling there are enough reserves in the banking system. This month it traded at 1.54%, breaking below the interest on excess reserves (IOER) floor of 1.55% for the first time in 14 months. This is happening as the Fed announces it will continue to plow ahead with Treasury bill purchases and supplying hundreds of billions of dollars of repo supply until April, if not later.
What should the Fed do? It has already telegraphed it will raise the IOER rate by five basis points to 1.60% at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting next week. Presumably, it will also raise the repo offered rate by five basis points to 1.60%. Policy makers should raise the repo rate even higher. Stand ready to offer liquidity, but at a penalty rate.
This won’t fix the problems in the repo market; only rule changes can do that. But at least this will allow the Fed to identify how much supply is needed to get the market back in balance rather than risking a loss of control of the federal funds rate altogether.
The Fed should not be looking to permanently insert itself into the repo market via a standing repo facility. Repo is still a credit market, and, in times of stress, it requires a credit decision when deciding who gets a collateralized loan and at what terms. Central banks are not equipped to make these decisions, and their involvement could create a moral hazard, making things worse.
Thanks to a subscriber for this report from UBS which may be of interest. Here is a section:
In the next 10 years, demographic changes will have major effects. Millennials, the largest US generation, will be approaching age 50, while the last of the baby boomers will all be at retirement age. Artificial intelligence and virtual reality are expected to be mainstream. Automation will impact the labor force. Environmental disruption will likely continue, and sustainable investing will be mainstream.
Investors see these “mega-trends”— an aging population, technology and automation, diminishing resources— creating opportunities for the future. In fact, seven in 10 want to take advantage of these trends to seek better returns.
As they look ahead, investors have an opportunity to ensure they are well positioned for the future—a future that will be here before we know it.
…In today’s challenging environment, investors seek various strategies to cope
To cope with this environment, 64% of investors are considering adding high quality stocks to their portfolios, while others would increase diversification and raise cash. Already, investors are holding 25% of their assets, on average, in cash. There is a clear connection between investor confidence and planning. Two-thirds of investors with a long-term plan in place are highly confident they will achieve their goals, compared to only 51% of investors without a plan. In addition, eight in 10 plan to discuss the impact of the US Presidential election with their advisors.
This article by Anooja Debnath for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
The pound faltered and gilts rallied after inflation data backed up Bank of England policy maker Michael Saunders’ call for urgent stimulus to boost the U.K. economy.
Sterling weakened against the euro and 10-year government bond yields dropped to the lowest in seven weeks after the data fueled bets that the central bank will lower interest rates this year. Money markets are now fully pricing in a full 25-basis-point rate cut for May, compared to November a day ago, and see a 65% chance of a move this month.
Saunders’ view on the need for more accommodative policy comes just days after BOE Governor Mark Carney said Britain’s economic growth had slowed below potential and that the Monetary Policy Committee had discussed the merits of near-term stimulus.
“There is more room for easing expectations to rise should incoming data disappoint and that could keep short-term sterling downside risks intact,” said Manuel Oliveri, a currency strategist at Credit Agricole AG.
This article by Daniel Kruger for the Wall Street Journal may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
The political backlash that followed crisis-era bank rescues hangs over policy makers’ approach to the current problem, analysts said, even as officials work to ensure the smooth functioning of a key piece of the infrastructure underpinning financial markets. Some fear that lending directly to hedge funds could lead to the perception the Fed is fueling risky bets.
“There’s a strong aversion to fat cat bailouts,” said Glenn Havlicek, chief executive of GLMX, which provides technology to repo trading desks.
Many hedge funds trade in the cash market through sponsored repos. The clearinghouse sits between buyers and sellers to ensure that neither party backs out of the transaction. Records of cleared trades also are publicly available, improving the market’s transparency.
The idea of using the clearinghouse appeals to some investors and analysts because the Fed has had trouble getting cash into the hands of the smaller banks, securities dealers and investors who need it the most.
That is because the Fed trades exclusively with a small group of large banks and securities firms, known as primary dealers. Even among these firms, activity is tightly concentrated. A study recently published by the Bank for International Settlements said that liquidity in the repo market rests in the hands of the four largest banks in the U.S. system.
Thanks to a subscriber for this note from Blackstone which may be of interest. Here is a section:
1. The economy disappoints the consensus forecast, but a recession is avoided. Federal Reserve Chair Powell lowers the Fed funds rate to 1%. Without a comprehensive trade deal in hand, President Trump exercises every executive authority he has to stimulate growth and ward off recession. He cuts payroll taxes to put more money in the hands of consumers.
