David Fuller and Eoin Treacy's Comment of the Day
Category - China

    U.S. Bets on China's Special Envoy in Trade Talks

    This article by Lingling Wei and Bob Davis for the Wall Street journal may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    While Chinese negotiators offered to stop providing government subsidies that distort prices and put Western rivals at a disadvantage, they haven’t so far produced a list of subsidies they would be willing to eliminate, the people said.

    Instead, the Chinese side so far has focused its offer on greater purchases of U.S. agricultural and energy products such as soybeans, crude oil and liquefied natural gas, they said.

    Whatever deal is struck, the U.S. is also seeking guarantees it will be enforced and a means to resolve disputes.

    “It’s one thing to write something on a piece of paper,” said Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Fox Business Network on Thursday. “It’s another thing to have enforcement mechanisms. And I know our trade team is hard at work, making sure that the American people get that.”

    Read entire article

    The Reasons Why China's Stock Rally Is Nearing $1 Trillion

    This article from Bloomberg News may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    The rally since January has added more than $893 billion to the value of the country’s equities, lifting Shenzhen’s risky startups and state-backed giants alike. The rebound has been so quick and widespread that it’s already triggered signs of overheating in four of China’s major benchmarks. The CSI 300 Index’s 15 percent rally is its best start to any year in a decade, and turnover across all exchanges is near the highest since March.

    While valuations have been low for months, Chinese equities really took off only after another set of weak economic data made monetary policy easing almost a certainty. Gains intensified when the new securities watchdog eased restrictions on trading, encouraging an increase in leveraged bets. Ample liquidity and a streak of foreign buying have fueled volumes.

    “It’s essentially a reflection of change in investor expectations,” said Wang Chen, a Shanghai-based partner with XuFunds Investment Management Co. “The rally’s been driven by a return in risk appetite and a valuation catch-up.”

    Read entire article

    China Stock Rally Accelerates as Momentum Hits Three-Year High

    This article from Bloomberg news may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    A rally in Chinese equities steepened Monday as bumper credit figures for January added to signs of increased stimulus.

    The Shanghai Composite Index jumped 2.7 percent by the close, taking its rebound since a Jan. 3 low to 12 percent, as turnover on mainland exchanges reached a 10-month high. The small cap ChiNext index in Shenzhen, typically the most speculative part of the market, soared more than 4 percent. The surge weighed on government bonds, with the 10-year yield climbing the most in two months.

    The nation’s equities, which were the world’s worst performing in 2018, are starting to take off as the new securities regulator eases curbs on trading and an economic slowdown spurs monetary easing. In a sign of how broad the rally has been, the relative strength of four major indexes have all climbed above 70 -- a level that signals to some traders an asset may be overheating. The last time that happened was May 2015, when the equity market was in a bubble.

    Read entire article

    Trump Open to Letting March 1 Deadline for China Tariffs Slide

    This article by Saleha Mohsin and Margaret Talev for Bloomberg maty be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    President Donald Trump said he is open to letting a March 1 deadline to raise tariffs on Chinese products pass without penalty if the two sides are near an agreement, sending a conciliatory signal as talks to resolve a trade war between countries continue.

    “If we’re close to a deal where we think we can make a real deal and it’s going to get done, I could see myself letting that slide for a little while,” Trump said to reporters during a cabinet meeting on Tuesday. “But generally speaking I’m not inclined” to delay raising tariffs, he added.

    Negotiators from the world’s two largest economies began their latest round of talks this week ahead of the March 1 deadline for additional U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods. Trump has threatened to more than double the rate of tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese imports.

    Read entire article

    Trump Has China Where He Needs It

    This article by J. Kyle Bass and Daniel Babich may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    “Water keeps the boat afloat but can also sink it” is a Chinese proverb that neatly summarizes the nation’s current economic predicament. The debt that has hydrated the Chinese financial system for the past 10 years is now drowning it.

    During the darkest days of the financial crisis in 2008, China launched a 4 trillion renminbi ($593 billion in today’s dollars) infrastructure plan that was accurately described as pulling the global economy out of recession. This infrastructure stimulus plan never ceased, and by 2017 the 4 trillion of spending ballooned to 14 trillion, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics.
     
    At first, China benefited from the economic reforms of the 1990s, its ascension into the World Trade Organization and the resultant inflow of foreign investment by Western companies. By 2009, the previous decade of strong growth meant wages and price levels had risen such that China was no longer a low-cost manufacturer. This made it implausible that exports could drive economic growth. Therefore, China’s central bank printed money to fund a gargantuan stimulus program. 

    History tells us that growth that is funded by excessively rapid credit and money creation can lead to a variety of asset bubbles and to financial, credit and currency crises. A broad measure based on data from the People’s Bank of China and other agencies that includes both bank assets and shadow banking assets such as wealth management products, trust beneficiary rights and trust loans, places China’s total credit at $48 trillion, about 3.7 times its gross domestic product. That compares with $24 trillion for the U.S. despite China having an economy that is 37 percent smaller. China’s decade of rapid credit creation and investment spending has led to soaring property values, despite high vacancy, and low wage levels. These led to tepid export growth and a stagnating economy as the export industry lost competitiveness.

    Read entire article

    Foxconn Says It Will Move Forward With Wisconsin Plant After Conversation with Trump

    This article from the Wall Street Journal may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section: 

    On Wednesday, a top aide to Mr. Gou said high labor and production costs in the U.S. would make it difficult for Foxconn to compete with rivals if it manufactured LCD displays in Wisconsin. Louis Woo, a special assistant to Mr. Gou, said Wednesday that roughly three-quarters of Foxconn’s Wisconsin jobs would be in research, development and design, instead of manufacturing.

    The back and forth came after the Taiwanese contract manufacturer fell short of a job-creation target in Wisconsin last year to obtain tax credits, amid a tight U.S. labor market. The Wall Street Journal reported in November that Foxconn considering bringing in engineers from China to Wisconsin as it struggled to find personnel locally.

    Wisconsin state lawmakers lauded Foxconn’s announcement Friday. “We want to thank President Trump for his commitment to Wisconsin workers—our state has an ally in the White House,” said state Assembly Speaker Robin Vos and state Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald, both Republicans.

    Read entire article

    China Meets Foreign Investors' Demands With Latest Rule Changes

    This article from Bloomberg news may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    China’s authorities have given international investors an early Spring Festival gift: ready access to almost all areas of the country’s capital markets.

    Proposed changes announced late Thursday as part of a slew of new regulations include letting offshore funds trade more types of futures and options. Just days before the biggest holiday in the Chinese calendar, regulators also had something for domestic investors, including scrapping an automatic margin call threshold, allowing more types of collateral for certain loans and lowering capital requirements for riskier assets.

    The measures targeting overseas firms will greatly expand the scope of the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor program, one of the key channels into China, highlighting the authorities’ determination to open up their financial system and meet demands from international institutions for broader access.

    The moves will give foreigners the same range of investment options as local players, said Yang Hai, an analyst at Kaiyuan Securities Co.

    “Institutions looking to hedge and even short-sell Chinese stocks are likely to enter the market in future,” as a result of the changes, said Yang. “I think it has something to do with the China-U.S. trade negotiations, but it’s also about the financial opening promise.”

    Read entire article

    Iron Ore Market Shudders as Dam Disaster Spurs Supply Concerns

    This article by Krystal Chia for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    Iron ore investors are attempting to gauge the fallout from the dam burst at one of Vale SA’s mines, amid concerns the disaster will have ramifications beyond the affected operation in Brazil that could tighten the market in the short term and offset weakness from a slowdown in China.

    Futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange extended gains on Tuesday to head for the highest close in more than a year, after the benchmark price for immediate delivery surged to $78.80 a ton on Monday, the highest level since March. Shares of Australia-based miners rallied, with gains for BHP Group, Rio Tinto Group and Fortescue Metals Group Ltd.

    In Brazil, “it seems likely that there will be an extensive increase in safety tests over the coming weeks and months,” Capital Economics Ltd. said in a note, raising its end of first quarter forecast to $75 a ton. “These tests may highlight other vulnerabilities in the system that could lead to temporary
    cutbacks at one or more mines until the issues are addressed.”

    Read entire article

    Mnuchin Signals Chance to End China Tariff War Ahead of Talks

    This article by Saleha Mohsin for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that if China presents enough trade concessions to President Donald Trump, there is a chance that the administration may seek to lift all tariffs. “Everything is on the table,” Mnuchin said early Tuesday during an interview on Fox Business News “Mornings With Maria” program. The Treasury chief is set to meet with top Chinese officials in Washington on Wednesday and Thursday alongside U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer about a month before the U.S. is set to escalate the trade war with China with fresh tariffs.

    Trump and China’s Xi Jinping gave their officials until March 1 to work out a deal on “structural changes” to China’s economic model. If they fail, Trump has promised to raise the tariff rate on $200 billion in Chinese imports to 25 percent from 10 percent. The collapse of talks would dash hopes of a lasting truce that would remove one of the darkest clouds hanging over the world economy.

     

    Read entire article

    GMO Quarterly Letter Q4 2018

    Thanks to a subscriber for ths report which may be of interest. Here is a section on the outlook for 2019: