Little more than 2 1/2 years from now, the global fleet of merchant ships will have to reduce drastically how much sulfur their engines belch into the atmosphere. While that will do good things -- like diminishing the threat of acid rain and helping asthma sufferers -- there’s a $60 billion sting in the tail.

That’s how much more seaborne vessels may be forced to spend each year on higher-quality fuel to comply with new emission rules that start in 2020, consultant Wood Mackenzie Ltd. estimates. For an industry that hauls everything from oil to steel to coal, higher operating costs will compound the financial strain on cash-strapped ship owners, whose vessels earn an average of 70 percent less than they did just before the 2008-09 recession.

The consequences may reach beyond the 90,000-ship merchant fleet, which handles about 90 percent of global trade. Possible confusion over which carriers comply with the new rules could lead to some vessels being barred from making deliveries, which would disrupt shipments, according to BIMCO, a group representing ship owners and operators in about 130 countries. Oil refiners still don’t have enough capacity to supply all the fuel that would be needed, and few vessels have embarked on costly retrofits.

“There will be an absolute chaos,” said Lars Robert Pedersen, the deputy secretary general of Denmark-based BIMCO. “We are talking about 2.5 million to 4 million barrels a day of fuel oil to basically shift into a different product.”

Eoin Treacy's view

Until ship owners have visibility on whether refiners will be changing the delivery conditions on futures contracts for fuel oil/gas oil, they will be unwilling to commit to multi-million dollar retrofits of existing ships. This news comes on top of last year’s decision by the ballast Water Management Convention which requires all ships sailing in international waters to install a ballast Water Management System by September 2017 which also necessitates a significant additional cost for maintaining existing shipping inventory. 

The answer for many marginal businesses will be to sell off old ships for whatever they can get for them. The Baltic Dry Index has almost doubled in the last seven weeks and hit a new recovery high yesterday. While somewhat overextended in the very short-term the medium-term pattern has a rounding characteristic an evolving demand dominated environment.  

The Guggenheim Shipping ETF has been consolidating just above the 200-day MA since early January and a sustained move below it would be required to question medium-term recovery potential. 

Diana Shipping surged higher in November before retreating to find support near $2.75. It has since rallied back to test the initial peak and a clear downward dynamic would be required to question medium-term potential for additional upside.