Northern Alberta’s oil-sands companies have been the single most affected region in the world since the global retreat on investment began last year, according to various analysts. All told, about 800,000 barrels a day of oil sands projects have been delayed or canceled, according to Wood Mackenzie Ltd., a research consultant.

After the last prolonged price downturn in 1986, no new major oil sands plants were started well into the next decade. The projects caught in midstream today may again be the last ones built for the foreseeable future, experts say.

“The economics have changed and there’s no promise things will come back to the way they were,” said Bob Schulz, a professor at the University of Calgary’s Haskayne School of Business. Once the current round of projects is finished, the planning boards are empty, he said.

Eoin Treacy's view

It’s going to be hard for exploration and development companies to raise capital for increasingly supply over the next decade considering the extent to which oil prices have fallen without the catalyst of demand destruction. The wild card will be private equity interest which has been raising money for acquisitions. In the event this goes ahead, and there is no reason to suspect it won’t, it could delay the bottoming process for oil by prolonging the time required for higher cost suppliers to exit the market.

Nevertheless, Brent crude prices posted upside weekly key reversal last week from the region of the 200-day MA and despite some intraweek volatility held the majority of the advance this week. A sustained move below $40 would be required to question current scope for a reversion back towards the mean.