David Fuller and Eoin Treacy's Comment of the Day
Category - General

    AI Is Helping Scientists Locate Rare and Useful Minerals

    This article from ExtremeTech may be of interest. Here is a section: 

    The researchers tested their model in October 2020 by requesting locations for rutherfordine, andersonite, schröckingerite, bayleyite, and zippeite. For efficiency, they set parameters in which only predictions with a 70% or higher “confidence” level would be shown. The model returned four predicted localities for rutherfordine, one of which has since been confirmed in Italy; one for andersonite, which has yet to be confirmed; one for schröckingerite, which was confirmed in Colorado; two for bayleyite, both Utah locations of which have been suspected before; and seven for zippeite, one of which has been confirmed in the Czech Republic. (As with bayleyite, four of the predicted zippeite localities had already been suspected.)

    Another test run focusing exclusively on raw earth elements (REE) predicted localities for monazite, allanite, and spodumene, which are used for construction, radiation research, and batteries. Out of 15 predictions, 12 monazite localities have been confirmed; 13 out of 19 allanite localities have been confirmed; and one out of 12 spodumene localities have been confirmed.

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    Amazon Prime Day Drives Online Sales Up 6.1%, Lags Estimate

    This article from Bloomberg may be of interest. Here is a section:  

    US shoppers spent $12.7 billion online during Amazon.com Inc.’s 48-hour Prime Day, up 6.1% from a year ago but short of estimates for 9.5% growth, according to Adobe Inc.

    An increasing share of customers used “buy now, pay later” services, Adobe said, indicating shoppers are concerned about the economy. 

    “For months, consumers have felt the effects of persistent inflation and an uncertain economic environment, and it has pushed shoppers to embrace more flexible ways to manage their spending around the Prime Day event,” said Vivek Pandya, an analyst with the technology company. “The revenue growth attributed to buy now, pay later is a preview of what we can expect in the months ahead, especially as we near the holiday shopping season.” 

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    Eoin's personal portfolio: stock market leveraged long breakeven stop triggered June 26th

    Inflation at 3% Flags End of Emergency, Turning Point for Fed

    This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section: 

    None of this means it’s game over in the fight against price pressures — especially for the Fed, which is widely reckoned to be locked-in to another interest-rate increase later this month. Still, there’s now a better-than-even chance that a July 26 hike, which would take the benchmark US rate to 5.5%, could be the last in quite a while. 

    That’s the way markets were betting after Wednesday’s data. Yields on short-term Treasury yields plunged, stocks rose, and the dollar was headed to the lowest in more than a year by one measure – all in anticipation that the Fed might ease up.

    ‘Coming to End’
    “The new data could give the Fed reason to debate whether any further rate hikes after this month are needed,” wrote Ryan Sweet, chief US economist at Oxford Economics. “This tightening cycle by the Fed is likely coming to an end.”

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    CPI Heating Up Now, RBI to Extend Hawkish Hold

    This article from Bloomberg may be of interest. Here is a section:  

    Cumulative rains since the monsoon season started on June 1 were 30% below their long-term average on June 24. Heavy rainfall over the last few weeks has erased that deficit and cumulative rains now amount to a surplus of 2% as of July 12.

    Heavy rains have also resulted in flash floods in northern India and damaged some crops. Overall, we believe rains would be beneficial for the summer crop, but excess rains can also hurt farm output in areas that have been flooded.

    It is still early to say how the regional distribution of the rains pans out over the entire monsoon season, which lasts through September. The heightened risk of El Nino this year threatens to weaken the rain clouds over the South Asian subcontinent.

    According to our estimates, the damage to farm output from El Nino could boost headline inflation by as much as 0.5 percentage point.

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    Credit Suisse AT1 Fallout Embroils More Japan Brokerages

    This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section: 

    Switzerland’s decision in March to write down the bonds as part of a government-led rescue of Credit Suisse shocked investors in Japan, who bought around 140-billion-yen ($1 billion) worth of the debt. Clients of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc.’s securities venture with Morgan Stanley took the lion share of the hit. The debacle in a country that’s trying to push its citizens to invest more has prompted regulators to look into whether the firms properly explained the risks before selling the bonds. 

    “In consideration of the product characteristics of AT1 bonds of Credit Suisse Group AG, we have sold those securities to customers to whom we thought the products would be suited, after having sales staff explain about them in person,” an SBI spokesperson said by email, in response to questions about the documents. 

    Rakuten Securities Inc. sold the debt through its business partners called independent financial advisers and is “reviewing and inspecting” its sales practices and explanatory materials, a spokesperson said by email. The firm will “continue to follow up” with the buyers and “appropriately respond” should they decide to escalate the issue, she said. 

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    Cotton Hits Monthly High as Market Sees Demand Pickup From China

    This article from Bloomberg may be of interest. Here is a section: 

    The US Department of Agriculture will release new numbers for the US and world cotton production on Wednesday. Analysts in a Bloomberg survey expect little change versus the report from the prior month, which already pointed to growing world cotton consumption. 

    On the supply side, the cotton futures market is concerned about the condition of the US crop and the yield potential for the new marketing year, said Walter Kunisch, senior commodity market strategist at Hilltop Securities Inc. Heat in US top producer Texas creates challenges for the crop development, he said. 

    In other markets, raw sugar gained following the release of data on the declining quality for sugar-cane crops in top exporter Brazil. Arabica coffee fell, narrowing its premium over robusta as the pace of Brazil’s harvest increases and El Niño threatens Vietnam’s production of the cheaper beans.    

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    Turkey Agrees to Back Sweden's NATO Bid in Boost to Alliance

    This article from Bloomberg may be of interest. Here is a section: 

    The about-face comes after months of arduous negotiations over Turkey’s demands and on the eve of a critical two-day NATO summit where leaders including US President Joe Biden are eager to show a united front and signal to Vladimir Putin that his war on Ukraine has only strengthened the alliance.

    NATO’s northern enlargement heralds one of the most prominent changes in the European security landscape after Russia’s aggression led to shifts including a ramp-up of defense spending in Germany and plans to bring back conscription in France. The early 2022 attack on Ukraine prompted an almost overnight change in public opposition to membership in NATO in Finland and Sweden.

    “Completing Sweden’s accession to NATO is a historic step that benefits the security of all NATO allies at this critical time,” Stoltenberg said in Vilnius. “I will not give you the exact dates for that. But this is a clear commitment.”

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