David Fuller and Eoin Treacy's Comment of the Day
Category - General

    Eli Lilly's New Weight-Loss Drug Is the Best Yet

    This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section: 

    Retatrutide’s performance seems to come from its unique way of tinkering with the hormones that control our appetite. Like Wegovy, retatrutide mimics a hormone called GLP-1, which helps to control blood sugar levels by signaling the secretion of insulin after eating. And like tirzepatide, the drug also potently mimics a second hormone involved with insulin secretion called GIP. But retatrutide also stimulates a third hormone, the glucagon receptor, which unlike GLP-1 and GIP is found in the liver — an addition that could be driving some of the drug’s benefits.

    Indeed, significant weight loss isn’t the only reason people are excited about the drug’s early data. As I’ve written in the past, obesity medicines still need to prove they can have a positive impact on patients’ health. On that front, Lilly’s drug is already hitting some key metrics. For example, treatment with retatrutide led to a 20% reduction in LDL, or “bad” cholesterol, double the improvement typically seen with other GLP-1 drugs.

    And higher doses of retatrutide lowered levels of fat in the liver by over 80%. Liver disease is so common in people with Type 2 diabetes that the American Diabetes Association recently recommended that all Type 2 diabetics be screened for it. And a small portion of people with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease go on to develop a more serious condition called NASH, where accumulation of scar tissue eventually prevents the liver from properly functioning.

    The hope is that the right weight-loss drug could tackle obesity, diabetes and liver disease all at once. While larger studies still need to be run, it’s looking a lot like retatrutide might be the one to take on that triple threat.

    Read entire article

    Prigozhin Says He Didn't Plan to Overthrow Russian Government

    This article from Bloomberg may be of interest. Here is a section:  

    Wagner mercenary group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin released an audio recording in which he discussed the past weekend’s events and said his group didn’t plan to overthrow the Russian government.

    March toward Moscow showed serious security problems in the country, he said in a recording released on Telegram that didn’t specify from where he was speaking.

    Prigozhin said he launched march because he wanted to preserve Wagner as a military group and not come under the command of the Defense Ministry.

    Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko helped find a negotiated solution to the weekend’s events, he confirms.

    Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko earlier brokered a deal in which Prigozhin ended the revolt in return for Putin letting him travel to Belarus and dropping criminal mutiny charges, the Kremlin earlier said.

    Read entire article

    Vietnam must take 'aggressive' action to meet growth goals, says finance minister

    This article from the Financial Times may be of interest. Here is a section: 

    Vietnam was one of Asia’s fastest-developing economies last year, expanding more than 8 per cent, its highest growth rate since 1997. But growth slowed in the first quarter of 2023 to 3.3 per cent, down from 5.9 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year, as a grim global economic picture and high inflation cut into demand for the country’s exports.

    “We rely on the world’s demand for our products, which is facing a lot of difficulties,” Ho Duc Phoc told the Financial Times, adding that the war in Ukraine had raised petroleum and consumer prices, putting pressure on manufacturing input and trade costs and depressing buyers’ appetite. “Our orders from international partners have reduced drastically.”

    He said the government was targeting full-year growth of 6 to 6.5 per cent, following anticipated first-half growth of about 4 per cent. “In the next six months, we will probably have [to take] aggressive steps to achieve that target,” he said, citing an extension of deadlines for tax payments, the reduction of value added tax and petrol levies amid proposals to help lower costs and boost demand.

    Vietnam’s central bank this month cut interest rates by 50 basis points, its fourth reduction this year.

    Read entire article

    China Economy Gloom Worsens With Weak Consumer Spending Data

    This article from Bloomberg may be of interest. Here is a section:

    China’s consumer-driven recovery is showing more signs of losing momentum as spending slows on everything from holiday travel to cars and homes, adding to expectations for more stimulus to support the economy. 

    Domestic travel spending during the recent holiday for the dragon-boat festival was lower than pre-pandemic levels, according to official data released this weekend. Home sales figures are below the level in previous years, while estimates for June car sales showed a drop from a year ago.

    The rebound in consumption after China shed its Covid controls has propelled growth so far this year, but confidence is weak and evidence is mounting that the economy may need more help. After the central bank cut policy rates earlier this month, economists raised their expectations for more monetary and fiscal stimulus, and state-run media outlets have also published a series of articles in recent days highlighting possible avenues of support.

    Read entire article

    Email of the day on money flows and the Nasdaq

    The Nasdaq price action seems to indicate that the top reached on March 29th 2022 (+/- the high of February 2nd) is of significance since on the 16th of June the close was below despite the intraday spike and has been trading below for the past couple of days : is it a short or just a consolidation phase after some short term overbought condition before it roars again? Rates are pausing but QT resumed after the regional bank scare and its liquidity injection - which is equivalent to rate hiking - as well as M2 continuing to decline (I am not sure that the surge in velocity of money is offsetting it). Your thoughts are welcomed.

    Read entire article

    The China-Driven Metals 'Super Cycle' Is Over, Jefferies Says

    Thanks to a subscriber for this article from Bloomberg which may be of interest. Here is a section:

    “China is more likely to be a headwind than a tailwind for demand over the next decade,” they said. The China super cycle, driven by urbanization and industrialization, is over, and the energy transition and decarbonization cycle has just begun, the analysts said.

    Asia’s largest economy has been a crucial support for metals markets over the last two to three decades as the country went on an infrastructure-building binge. However, China’s plodding post-virus recovery shows it may lack the horsepower required to buoy global demand as it transitions to a more service-oriented economy.

    That dynamic has been reflected in markets this year, with most metals falling even after Beijing abandoned its Covid Zero policy at the end of last year.

    Iron ore declined 0.7% at 12:46 p.m. Singapore time to $110.85 on Friday and was down 2.3% for the week. The steel-making staple has now wiped out all of its gains from earlier in the year as optimism about China’s recovery faded.

    Read entire article

    World's Empty Office Buildings Become Debt Time Bomb

    This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section: 

    Major institutional owners including Blackstone, Brookfield and Pimco have already chosen to stop payments on some buildings because they have better uses for their cash and resources. “There’s significant stress,” says Harold Bordwin, a principal in New York at Keen-Summit Capital Partners LLC, which specializes in renegotiating distressed real estate. “People don’t give up assets so easily unless they just don’t see any hope and they recognize that they’re pretty well underwater.”

    The number of transactions is plunging—and when deals do happen, the price declines are stark. In the US, where return-to-office rates have been lower than in Asia and Europe, values for institutional-quality offices are down 27% since March 2022, when interest rates started going up, according to data analytics company Green Street. Apartment building prices have declined 21%, and malls are off 18%. Office prices are expected to fall more than 25% in Europe and almost 13% in the Asia-Pacific region before hitting a trough, PGIM Real Estate, a unit of Prudential Financial Inc., forecasts.

    Read entire article

    Eoin's personal portfolio: new leveraged and unleveraged positions opened June 21st 2023