This article may be of interest
Last year, the yen weakening toward 146 per dollar triggered Japan’s first intervention to prop up the currency since 1998, though in the build up to that there were repeated official warnings about direct action. The Japanese currency has fallen more than 6% this year.
This article from Bloomberg may be of interest. Here is a section:
But though the nearshoring story remains plausible, the data so far do not quite justify the exuberant optimism that North America can pull Mexico into the developed world.
Recent government trade data confirm that the US is moving away from China. Last year Chinese exports accounted for only 17% of US imports, down from 22% during President Trump’s first year in office. In 2023 they have cratered, accounting for only 13% of what the US bought from abroad in the first four months of the year.
But Mexico is not taking over. Its 15% share of US imports this year is only 1.3 percentage points higher than it was in 2017. Indeed, other Asian exporters are taking a larger chunk.
Moreover, the nearshoring boom is hard to detect in the investment numbers. Foreign direct investment into Mexico has been stronger in the last ten years than in the prior decade, but the data show no recent upsurge. Indeed, new investment — excluding reinvested earnings — seems somewhat lower.
This note may be of interest. Here is a section:
President Christine Lagarde said the ECB still has ground to cover on borrowing costs and is “very likely” to raise again on July 27. Highlighting policymakers’ commitment to data-dependency, she avoided giving guidance on what may happen beyond that as investors ramped up bets on a hike at that meeting too.
This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
Microsoft didn’t rate in the public AI discourse one short year ago, when we were all watching Top Gun: Maverick and listening to Sam Bankman-Fried. Back then most of the hand-waving on the subject was aimed in the general direction of Google, where researchers first developed the technologies behind ChatGPT and its peers. But while Google initially kept its research away from commercial products, especially its flagship search engine, Microsoft is focused on using OpenAI’s innovations to make a buttload of money ASAP.
The company’s GitHub Copilot tool, which suggests new lines of code to computer programmers, was its first paid offering and has attracted more than 10,000 companies as customers. Bing, Microsoft’s also-ran search engine, came next, with a chatbot search engine that can create vacation itineraries and shopping lists. Over the past several months, Chief Executive Officer Satya Nadella has announced plans to incorporate other Copilots into Windows (where they’ll rewrite, summarize and explain content) and its Microsoft 365 office suite (where they’ll create slide decks in PowerPoint, sift through emails in Outlook and make charts based on Excel data). “There’s no point in hyping technology for technology’s sake,” Nadella says. “All of these technology shifts are only useful if they do something in the real world.”
This article for Bloomberg may be of interest. Here is a section:
“The focus will be if the Chinese authorities deliver, and whether what is delivered surpass expectations or not,” said Redmond Wong of Saxo Capital Markets HK Ltd. “Investors have become impatient with incremental measures and want a more expansive and aggressive package in one go.”
The government is finally starting to act — there are the rate cuts, and Beijing is said to be preparing a host of measures to boost the economy and the struggling property sector. The key, though, is that investors and companies want a comprehensive package rather than piecemeal measures.
Strategists and investors are already guessing as to the nature of the measures. Bets are mounting that loan prime rates will be cut next Tuesday. Macquarie Group Ltd. expects a 10-basis-point reduction in the one-year rate and a 15-basis point decline in the five-year.
This article may be of interest. Here is a section:
Here are key takeaways from the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision and statement on Wednesday:
Federal Open Market Committee unanimously holds benchmark rate in target range of 5%- 5.25%, as expected, in first pause since starting cycle of increases in early 2022, to “assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy”
New projections show policymakers favor a half-point of additional increases this year, which would push borrowing costs to about 5.6% -- higher than most economists and investors have been expecting
FOMC statement gives clear signal that policymakers will resume tightening by referring to the “extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate”; prior statement, in May, gave more leeway on whether to hike
Forecasts for economic growth and core inflation rose for 2023, while unemployment projections fell
Fed says economy has expanded at modest pace with robust job gains and low unemployment; inflation remains “elevated”
This article from Bloomberg may be of interest. Here is a section:
“This is absolutely the right decision and a reality check that the country needs, highlighting how the new leadership means business,” said Simon Quijano-Evans, chief economist at Gemcorp Capital Management in London.
Nigeria’s government bonds extended gains, having already surged earlier this week after the surprise weekend ouster of central bank Governor Godwin Emefiele. Emefiele’s removal was adding to signs that Tinubu is moving quickly to reset policies blamed for crippling the economy. The notes maturing in 2051 gained 2 cents on the dollar to 74, compared with around 70 last week.
Nigeria’s benchmark stock index rallied more than 3%. The potential changes in economic policy should help boost output in the longer term by freeing up budgetary resources and making the economy run smoother, Quijano-Evans wrote in a note.
Black Market
“Mid-term, the increase in efficiency should also help revive growth if the government is able to tackle corruption,” Quijano-Evans said.Liberalization of the naira under a new presidential administration was expected, but the depth of the drop on Wednesday was surprising, said Mark Bohlund, a senior credit research analyst at REDD Intelligence.
“My expectation was for a smaller downward shift now and for the naira to end up closer to NGN750/USD by the end of the year,” Bohlund said. “The devaluation will help the federal government to better balance its books as it is still highly dependent on USD-linked oil revenue while spending is in naira.”
This article from Bloomberg may be of interest. Here is a section:
“Over the last 30 years, while China specialized in becoming the world’s factory, India specialized in becoming the world’s back office,” said Duvvuri Subbarao, a former governor of the Reserve Bank of India. “Over the years, India moved up the value chain,” he said. But it can’t “take its comparative advantage for granted.”
India has roughly 1,600 of the centers, more than 40% of the number worldwide, according to Nasscom, a trade body for the country’s technology industry. Dotted around Bengaluru, formerly known as Bangalore, are the offices of luxury retailer Saks Fifth Avenue Inc., aircraft-engine maker Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc, US bank Wells Fargo & Co. and Japanese e-commerce firm Rakuten Group Inc. Some 66 global companies set up their first GCC in India in 2022. Even the lingerie brand Victoria’s Secret & Co. has a Bengaluru GCC.
The Siemens Healthineers GCC in Bengaluru. India has roughly 1,600 of GCCs, more than 40% of the number worldwide, according to Nasscom.
The offices generated about $46 billion in combined revenue in the fiscal year ended March, more than the output of Nepal.
The qualities that turned India into the world’s back office starting decades ago are propelling GCCs’ metamorphosis: a vast pool of young people, an education system that emphasizes science and technology, and the lower staffing costs that made India attractive in the first place. Add an unforeseen catalyst: the pandemic, which convinced decision-makers jobs can be done anywhere, including far-flung shores.
“India’s story starts with its demographics and its talent,” said Gunjan Samtani, the country head of Goldman Sachs Services Pvt, the entity that operates the bank’s GCCs in India. A software engineer by trade, he still codes from time to time. “What brought us here even two decades back was our ability to get access to technology and talent.”
