Dear Eoin, Why do you think the Uranium Miners ETF you have been holding has been disappointing of late? Is it all about "risk-off" and withdrawal of liquidity from the market? What makes you continue to hold? What would make you sell? Thanks! Kind regards,
Dear Eoin-Hope you are doing well. You often mention in your daily videos that you expect a recession within the next 18 months and that you also expect gold to move considerably higher in a not too distant future. If I am not mistaken in the previous recessions gold went down considerably. I know timing is always very difficult if not impossible, but do you expect gold to break upwards before the recession or after the recession. As always thanks very much for your wonderful service. Best rgds
When I see/read that Glaxo's shares have been ranging for 20 years, I can't help but be reminded by your service's maxim that, ranges are explosions waiting to happen." After 20 years, one must wonder when and in what direction will we see the explosion?
Tomorrow’s Comment of the Day will be an email mailbag issue. I’ve received several questions, on various topics, over the last few days and will address them in the Wednesday issue.
Thanks to a subscriber for this report from UBS which may be of interest. Here is a section:
Aggregate hours worked in the private sector declined in February and declined again in March. Last week we walked through why we estimate the labor market has come back into alignment over the course of the last year. We also note that for all the talk of labor hoarding, filings of initial claims for unemployment insurance over the last four weeks have run higher than all of 2019 and most of 2018. Layoff announcements have been running above the post-GFC pace. Clearly some employers are laying off.
In our economic baseline, we assume the labor market carves out a peak this summer, and we pencilled in the July employment report as the time we expect the first negative payroll print. We'll see. However, our empirical models are moving that way. In the recent compendium (on page 17 at this link) , a leading indicator model developed by UBS's Pierre Lafourcade noted that a rising share were in contraction (defined as having passed a cyclical peak), and the same for a broader set of employment indicators that reflect labor market conditions.
"Historically, once roughly 50% of all series contract, payrolls go negative (which is intuitive), but it's the leading indicator bucket that tells you when that is likely to happen (it shoots up from 40% to 80% of series contracting in just a few months). The upshot is that while private non-farm employment is still growing, an increasing share of the underlying dynamics is turning sour," he wrote in the compendium in late March.
This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
With China’s economic recovery well on track, top leaders will likely turn their policy focus now to boosting business confidence, increasing jobs and strengthening the property market without adding extra stimulus.
AndThe People’s Bank of China has already signaled it will begin dialing back the pandemic stimulus used to funnel loans to small businesses in recent years. Local governments are also saddled with record amounts of debt, reducing their capacity to increase fiscal support.
“The People’s Bank of China could switch to a wait-and-see mode once the economy is back on track, and prepare for policy normalization,” said Yu Xiangrong, chief China economist of Citigroup Inc.
This article for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
Climate finance is likely to be a focus of December’s COP28 meeting in the United Arab Emirates, with the oil-exporting host saying it will address ways to fund the energy transition in poorer countries that simultaneously need to expand access to electricity. That adds pressure on industrialized nations and oil producers to step up.
While Vietnam’s $15.5 billion and Indonesia’s $20 billion planned JETP agreements are at an earlier stage, they’re also much bigger and potentially more complex. A smaller deal envisaged with Senegal is complicated by its plan to start producing gas.
“We could have done an amazing, amazing model right here in South Africa,” said Tasneem Essop, executive director of Climate Action Network International, which represents over 1,900 climate-focused organizations in more than 130 countries. But “we got embroiled in the politics of it all.”
This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
Tech stocks in the S&P 500 are trading at almost 25 times prospective earnings. To justify such a multiple, the Fed would need to cut rates by at least 300 basis points, data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence show. That’s more than five times what the swaps market is pricing in for rate cuts this year.
“Traders are betting on a big about-face in the Fed’s interest-rate policy, but there is no certainty as to whether, and when, this will happen,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial. “Longer-term, the sector’s growth prospects are attractive, but not at the current valuations.”
A bleak earnings outlook for tech companies supports the skepticism. Analysts expect a 15% slump in the sector’s first-quarter profits — the third-largest decline among the S&P 500’s 11 industry groups, data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence show.
