Investment is set to power a pickup in India's growth in the year ahead. An increase in public capital expenditure and incentives aimed at expanding manufacturing capacity are set to spark a private-investment cycle. The Reserve Bank's hold in April after a series of rate hikes to fight inflation also signals a shift to supporting growth.
Investment is set to power a pickup in India’s growth in the year ahead. An increase in public capital expenditure and incentives aimed at expanding manufacturing capacity are set to spark a private-investment cycle. The Reserve Bank’s hold in April after a series of rate hikes to fight inflation also signals a shift to supporting growth.
We forecast the expansion in GDP to accelerate to 5.9% year on year in the first quarter of 2024 from an estimated 5.0% in 1Q23.
On a full-year basis, growth will be distorted by pandemic effects — a low base contributed to a surge to 7.1% in fiscal 2023. Coming off the high comparison, growth is poised to slow to 6% in fiscal 2024.
Inflation is likely to slide to 5.3% on average in fiscal 2024 from 6.7% in fiscal 2023, due to lower commodity prices, lagged impacts of the RBI’s rate hikes, and base effects.
We see the RBI keeping its repo rate on hold at 6.5% through the end of 2023, avoiding over-tightening that could damage the economy. As consumer prices cool, we expect it to ease in 1Q24 to add support for the recovery.
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