David Fuller and Eoin Treacy's Comment of the Day
Category - General

    Email of the day on climate change and whether it is already too late

    Am not sure how familiar you are with work of eminent Climate scientist James Lovelock FRS . Ten years ago he predicted it was already too late to avoid collapse in human civilization. I thought it might be of interest to you Youtube James Lovelock, end of civilization.

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    Salad Shortages on UK Shelves Spark Brexit Blame Game

    This article from Bloomberg may be of interest. Here is a section: 

    The shortages have led Tesco, Aldi and Asda to limit purchases to three units per person in the UK while Morrisons has introduced a cap of two. Asda has gone the furthest with restrictions across tomatoes, peppers, cucumbers, lettuce, salad bags, broccoli, cauliflower and raspberries.

    The UK’s Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs has insisted the country has a “highly resilient food supply chain” and that other countries are experiencing similar disruption. 

    British shoppers have shared images of empty shelves on Twitter while on the continent consumers in France, Netherlands, Spain, Italy and Bulgaria are showing photos and video tours of supermarkets with plentiful supply. On Thursday morning #BrexitFoodShortages was trending on Twitter.

    However, Irish stores also have a shortage of some fruit and vegetables stemming from Spain and north Africa and retailers are looking at alternative sources of supply. 

    In Denmark, the second-largest supermarket chain Coop is short of cucumbers, tomatoes, lettuce, bell peppers and aubergines due to lower deliveries from Spain, though the grocer hasn’t started rationing. Another chain in Denmark, REMA 1000, has similar shortages and expects the issues to persist for several weeks. 

    There have been reports of higher prices due to supply constraints in the Netherlands, but Binard from Freshfel Europe insisted “there are not really any significant shortages” in the country, nor in France, Germany, Italy or Spain. “There may be a little bit less volume at a higher price,” he said. “But nothing is missing.”

    In Sweden, supermarket ICA Gruppen is finding it challenging to get full volumes of fruit and vegetables but the situation is manageable, said Jonas Andersson, head of fruit and vegetables at ICA Sverige.

    In the UK, it’s the second instance of widespread rationing in the space of four months. In November almost every major supermarket capped purchases of eggs after the higher cost of chicken feed and an outbreak of bird flu led to a dearth of supply.

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    AI Mania Propels Nvidia Value by Nearly $220 Billion This Year

    Nvidia dominates the market for graphics chips designed for complex computing tasks needed to power AI applications, leading analysts and investors to believe that the company will benefit as more people use ChatGPT-like applications. 

    “When you have ‘the next big thing’ in tech, it’s natural for investors to scramble to find ways to play the theme,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell. “Nvidia’s involvement in the AI space now puts it directly under the spotlight, which means there could be strong demand for the shares.” 

    The expectation is driven by the hope that chatbot operators will need more computing power as they respond to the millions of queries received across the web, from deadline-driven students to struggling songwriters. 

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    Apple Makes Headway in Secret Bid to Track Glucose on Watch

    This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section: 

    The goal of this secret endeavor — dubbed E5 — is to measure how much glucose is in someone’s body without needing to prick the skin for blood. After hitting major milestones recently, the company now believes it could eventually bring glucose monitoring to market, according to people familiar with the effort.

    If perfected, such a breakthrough would be a boon to diabetics and help cement Apple as a powerhouse in health care. Adding the monitoring system to the Apple Watch, the ultimate goal, would also make that device an essential item for millions of diabetics around the world.

    There’s still years of work ahead, but the move could upend a multibillion-dollar industry. Roughly 1 in 10 Americans have diabetes, and they typically rely on a device that pokes the skin for a blood sample. There are also patches from Dexcom Inc. and Abbott Laboratories that are inserted into the skin but need to be replaced about every two weeks.

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    Email of the day on long bond positions as yields rise

    I was watching your commentary today, you seem once again to be somewhat circumspect with regards to longer term bonds the world over, and as you have repeatedly said over recent weeks, yields are in a consistent trend higher. Why then do you continue to hold TLT, a very long duration bond that gets harder hit when yields rise, and the DoubleLine fund too? Can you explain your thinking on this front, as your commentary seems at odds with your actions, in this instance at least.

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    European Gas Reaches Tipping Point to Price Out Coal in Power

    This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section: 

    European gas prices rose amid expectations of higher demand from power producers, after a recent slump improved the profitability of the fuel compared to coal. Benchmark futures have been fluctuating near €50 over the last few days after plunging about 35% since the start of the year. Together with surging carbon prices, that could rein in an increased reliance on coal to produce electricity, but also prevent gas prices from falling further. 

    Last year, coal-fired power generation in Europe increased by about 1.5 percentage points versus 2021, ending a steady decline in coal usage rates, according to Eurasia Group. That was mainly driven by a surge in gas prices after Russia cut supplies. 

    Not all countries in Europe still use significant amounts of coal, but for those that do — such as Germany and the Netherlands — the switch to gas is becoming more likely, according to Fabian Ronningen, a senior analyst for power and renewables research at Norwegian consultant Rystad Energy AS. 

    “The situation we have seen over the last few weeks has been the closest competition between coal and gas in a very long time,” he said. It remains to be seen whether increases in gas generation will outpace the rise in coal usage this month, he added, since infrastructure bottlenecks and fuel availability
    can have an impact.
     

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    China Tech Giants Tumble Amid Growing Fears of Price Wars

    This article for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section: 

    JD.com led losses Tuesday following the reports of its subsidy campaign, which is aimed specifically at competing against budget shopping app Pinduoduo. The stock plunged the most in four months.

    “Embarking on an aggressive subsidy campaign could be an acknowledgment on JD.com’s part that it is facing market share pressure from Pinduoduo,” said Ling at Union Bancaire Privee. The offensives to lure cost-sensitive consumers also suggest internet leaders’ superiority in elements such as logistics aren’t proving enough to thwart competition from newer entrants and smaller players. 

    The glory days of Tencent’s domestic games business may be a thing of the past. Gaming was once the engine of Tencent’s earnings growth. While 2023 looks to be a better year for the Chinese gaming sector, we believe there has been a structural shift in the market. We expect Tencent’s domestic gaming sales to remain broadly flat through 2024-26. 
     

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    Biodiesel and Renewable Diesel: It's All About the Policy

    This article from farmdocdaily may be of interest. Here is a section: 

    Biomass-based diesel (BBD) production in the form of renewable diesel is undergoing a major boom.  What is not well understood is that the boom is entirely policy driven.  This is most directly evident in the fact that the price of BBD (as represented by FAME biodiesel) is about twice as expensive as petroleum diesel. The implication is that little or no BBD would be produced and consumed in the U.S. without substantial policy incentives. A further implication is that the renewable diesel boom cannot be understood without understanding the policies driving the boom.  In this article, we use a simple model of the BBD market to illustrate the impact of a variety of policy scenarios. When considered in isolation, the market impact of the policies considered are fairly straightforward.

    The analysis becomes much more complicated when multiple policies are in effect at the same time.  In particular, the impact of a given policy may be heavily dependent on which other policies are in place at the same time.  In the U.S., all four of the following policies are presently in place and interact to determine the price and quantity of BBD: i) blenders tax credit; ii) RFS mandates; iii) carbon credits in California; and iv) import duties (tariffs).  The interactions between these policies can produce surprising and poorly understood economic outcomes.

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