David Fuller and Eoin Treacy's Comment of the Day
Category - General

    US Natural Gas Futures Slump to a 28-Month Low on Warm Weather

    This article from Bloomberg may be of interest. Here is a section: 

    US natural gas futures slumped to the lowest in 28 months as weather forecasts have shifted milder since last week, further eroding the prospect for heating demand this winter.

    Gas for March delivery dropped 4% to $2.183 per mmbtu as of 8:51 a.m. in New York
    Futures touched $2.168 earlier, the lowest since Sept. 2020

    Weather across the eastern two-thirds is looking warmer next week when compared with Friday’s outlook, with above-usual temperatures expected for southern states: Maxar.
    See WHUT for a map of latest 6-10 day weather forecast: NOAA

    “The market appears ready to push natural gas steeply lower until storage surpluses stop ballooning and/or production responds more vigorously to lower prices,” analysts at EBW AnalyticsGroup said in a note to clients

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    Apple Ad Rules Send Internet Economy Into Prolonged 'Recession'

    This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section: 

    A factor that’s gotten less attention, though, is something a bit more arcane, something more specific to the business models that have both enriched some of the world’s biggest tech companies and shaped the way many of us experience the internet. That factor is the iPhone.

    In 2021, Apple rolled out what it called App Tracking Transparency. Henceforth, iPhone users had to opt in to certain forms of digital tracking, in particular targeting that involves the sharing of information between different apps.

    Social media companies rely heavily on that technique to serve up the targeted ads that are their profit engines. The data they collect can form an ever-more-detailed mosaic of a user and, most importantly, a better sense of what kind of person responds to which types of ads.

    Apple presented its anti-tracking policy as a way for people to take control of their information, at a time when lawmakers around the world are championing a similar cause. Ads are intrusive and annoying, and being closely tracked on the internet is creepy. If you are a political dissident or a woman researching abortion in a place where the procedure is illegal, it is terrifying.

    At the time, however, Facebook’s parent company Meta saw the change as a serious threat. Social media executives feared that lots of iPhone users would opt out of this kind of app tracking when given the option. Almost two years on, they seem to have been right. Meta estimated that the change cost it $10 billion in 2022, or 9% of its total revenue.

    Eric Michael Seufert, an analyst at Mobile Dev Memo, went so far as to call it “the App Tracking Transparency recession.” Seufert argued that the tech companies having the hardest time right now are those most directly affected by Apple’s policy. As he points out, revenue at YouTube, Google's video arm that relies heavily on third-party ad tracking, has lagged the company's search revenue, which is far less reliant on this type of tracking.

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    Email of the day on charting lithium

    I hope you are well. Could you replace your LITHIUM CHART with the enclosed below. I am sorry, but yours is useless. Thanks, and regards,

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    George Soros on Climate Change, China, Elections

    This video of George Soros’s speech at the Munich security conference over the weekend may be of interest. 

    Mercedes Cars Become More Elusive After 43% Jump in Prices

    This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    Mercedes is hiking the prices even of entry-level models like the A-Class hatchback. Drivers are increasingly only be able to buy versions of the car with bells-and-whistle options as standard.

    Mercedes isn’t alone. Around the world, manufacturers are reaping the benefits of selling fewer but more expensive cars. In the US, average monthly payments for a new car nearly doubled from late 2019. And as battery-powered vehicles tend to cost more than the average combustion-engine car, the shift to EVs may make the affordability crisis even worse.

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    Star Banker's Disappearance Unnerves China's Business Elite

    This article from Bloomberg may be of interest. Here is a section: 

    Increasingly in China, a suddenly absent boss has come to signal a crackdown or investigation by authorities. In many cases, the person is said to be “assisting” graft probes.

    Publicly listed companies typically report they have lost contact with the executive and need to make their own inquiries into what happened within the country’s opaque legal system.

    A suave and outspoken dealmaker, Bao built China’s pre- eminent tech-focused investment bank. He convinced a Jack Ma-backed company to become a cornerstone investor when his firm went public in 2018 and has been the go-to banker for the biggest tech stars. 

    Bao is among China’s “western-educated individuals with lots of connections with the global financial elite,” said Victor Shih, an associate professor at University of California San Diego who specializes in China’s banking policies. “We don’t see those types suddenly running into such serious trouble that
    often.”

    Bao studied English literature at China’s prestigious Fudan University and received a master’s degree in business and economics from the BI Norwegian School of Management in 1995. He once said it was his mission to “participate in the value creation of the greatest entrepreneurs” in China. 

    A former banker at Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse Group AG, Bao founded China Renaissance in 2005, making a name for the firm by brokering tough mergers that led to the formation of ride-hailing service Didi Global Inc. and food-delivery giant Meituan. 

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    Ukraine is burning through ammunition faster than the US and NATO can produce it. Inside the Pentagon's plan to close the gap

    This news item from CNN may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    Running full-tilt, as it was on a recent January morning, the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant churns out roughly 11,000 artillery shells a month. That may seem like a lot, but the Ukrainian military often fires that many shells over just a few days.

    To meet that demand, the Scranton plant is undergoing a massive expansion, fueled by millions of dollars in new defense spending from the Pentagon. It’s investing in new high-tech machinery, hiring a few dozen additional workers and will eventually shift to a 24/7 schedule of constant production.

    “It’s certainly ramped up over the last year. As we bring in more modern equipment, it’ll be able to ramp up even further,” said Todd Smith, senior director of General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems, which operates the plant for the Army.

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