David Fuller and Eoin Treacy's Comment of the Day
Category - General

    Jeremy Grantham Warns of a 17% Plunge in the S&P 500 This Year

    This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section: 

    Grantham views the process of further stock market pain playing out now as similar to the popping of bubbles following other rare “explosions of investor confidence” such as in 1929, 1972 and 2000. While many are attributing last year’s slide in stocks to the war in Ukraine and the surge in inflation, or reduced growth from Covid-19 and ensuing supply chain problems, Grantham believes the market was due for a comeuppance regardless.

    While the first and “easiest” leg of the bubble’s bursting is over, Grantham says that the next phase will be more complicated. Seasonal strength in the market in January and during the current period of the presidential cycle could keep the market buoyant in the early part of the year. “Almost any pin can prick such supreme confidence and cause the first quick and severe decline,” he wrote. “They are just accidents waiting to happen, the very opposite of unexpected. But after a few spectacular bear-market rallies we are now approaching the far less reliable and more complicated final phase.”
     

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    The Future of Uncertainty

    Thanks to a subscriber for this transcript of 3rd Atal Bihari Vajpayee Memorial Lecture delivered by Ambassador Bilahari Kausikan of Singapore in New Delhi yesterday. Here is a section: 

    First, no country can avoid engaging with both the US and China. Dealing with both simultaneously is a necessary condition for dealing effectively with either. Without the US there can be no balance to China anywhere; without engagement with China, the US may well take us for granted. The latter possibility may be less in the case of a big country like India, but it is not non-existent.

    Second, I know of no country that is without concerns about some aspect or another of both American and Chinese behaviour. The concerns are not the same, nor are they held with equal intensity, and they are not always articulated – indeed, they are often publicly denied -- but they exist even in the closest of American allies and in states deeply dependent on China.

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    Germany Set to Allow Poland's Re-Export of Tanks to Ukraine

    This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section: 

    As Ukraine and its allies prepare for a potential escalation in fighting in the spring, the debate over sending battle tanks to back Kyiv’s military and potentially retake territory has become a flashpoint among NATO allies. US and European officials have bridled at Scholz’s slow decision-making, saying the German leader should be more assertive, following through his promised “Zeitenwende,” or historic turning point on security. 

    Scholz has insisted that Germany should not act alone in sending new categories of heavy weapons that could provoke an escalation with Moscow. He’s placed a premium on moving in lockstep with the US and NATO. 

    “We never go alone,” Scholz said in an interview last week with Bloomberg. 

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    Microsoft beats on earnings as cloud unit shows strong growth

    This article from CNBC may be of interest. Here is a section: 

    Microsoft’s total revenue increased by 2% year over year in that quarter ending Dec. 31, the slowest rate since 2016, according to a statement. Net income fell to $16.43 billion from $18.77 billion in the year-ago quarter. The company took a $1.2 billion charge in the quarter in connection with its decision to cut 10,000 employees, revise its hardware lineup and consolidate leases.

    Revenue in Microsoft’s Intelligent Cloud segment amounted to $21.51 billion, up 18% and slightly above the $21.44 billion consensus among analysts polled by StreetAccount. The unit includes the Azure public cloud, Windows Server, SQL Server, Nuance and Enterprise Services. Revenue from Azure and other public cloud services, which Microsoft does not report in dollars, grew by 31%, slightly above the estimate of almost 31% that analysts polled by CNBC and StreetAccount had expected. In the previous quarter, the category grew 35%.

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    World Economic Forum Global Risk

    This report goes to some lengths to highlight the worst possible outcome for the global economy but then goes on to say that fewer than half of participants are as gloomy as the report’s conclusions. Here is a section: 

    The report describes four potential futures centred around food, water and metals and mineral shortages, all of which could spark a humanitarian as well as an ecological crisis – from water wars and famines to continued overexploitation of ecological resources and a slowdown in climate mitigation and adaption. Given uncertain relationships between global risks, similar foresight exercises can help anticipate potential connections, directing preparedness measures towards minimizing the scale and scope of polycrises before they arise.

    In the years to come, as continued, concurrent crises embed structural changes to the economic and geopolitical landscape, they accelerate the other risks that we face. More than four in five GRPS respondents anticipate consistent volatility over the next two years at a minimum, with multiple shocks accentuating divergent trajectories. However, respondents are generally more optimistic over the longer term. Just over one-half of respondents anticipate a negative outlook, and nearly one in five respondents predict limited volatility with relative – and potentially renewed – stability in the next 10 years.

    Indeed, there is still a window to shape a more secure future through more effective preparedness. Addressing the erosion of trust in multilateral processes will enhance our collective ability to prevent and respond to emerging cross-border crises and strengthen the guardrails we have in place to address well-established risks. In addition, leveraging the interconnectivity between global risks can broaden the impact of risk mitigation activities – shoring up resilience in one area can have a multiplier effect on overall preparedness for other related risks. As a deteriorating economic outlook brings tougher trade-offs for governments facing competing social, environmental and security concerns, investment in resilience must focus on solutions that address multiple risks, such as funding of adaptation measures that come with climate mitigation co-benefits, or investment in areas that strengthen human capital and development.

    Some of the risks described in this year’s report are close to a tipping point. This is the moment to act collectively, decisively and with a long-term lens to shape a pathway to a more positive, inclusive and stable world.

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    Giant Fund Buys Up Tesla and Plug Power Stock, Sells GM

    This article from Barron’s may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section: 

    DNB Asset Management materially increased investments in EV maker Tesla (ticker: TSLA) and Plug Power (PLUG), a hydrogen fuel-cell technology company, while slashing its stake in General Motors (GM) in the fourth quarter. The unit of Norway's largest financial-services firm, DNB, disclosed the stock trades, among others, in a form it filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

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    Goldilocks And The Magic Money Tree

    Thanks to a subscriber for this article by Anatole Kaletsky which may be of interest. Here is a section from the conclusion: 

    To call the vindication of MMT a reductio ad absurdum, as I did above, is perhaps an exaggeration. MMT economists made some interesting arguments about the interaction of monetary and fiscal policy which orthodox economists and central bankers were wrong to ignore. But what about the Magic Money Tree? If inflation is cured painlessly by the end of the year and Goldilocks returns to dominate the markets for the next decade, as investors are now expecting, then governments will revive their interest in the Magic Money Tree. I too may start to believe in fairy tales—and we can all live happily ever after.

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