A bright outlook for African frontier markets
Comment of the Day

February 08 2011

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

A bright outlook for African frontier markets

Thanks to a subscriber for this interesting report from Deutsche Bank covering Africa's frontier markets. Here is a section:
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is set to remain the second fastest growing region in the world after Asia, driven by rising real incomes and high commodity prices. The region's economies remained broadly stable during the crisis. As public debt levels are close to pre-crisis levels and inflation nearing single-digits, we believe the region offers a solid track record of sound macro-economic policies.

The rising global demand for natural resources and arable land, the strengthening Asia-link and increasing private capital inflows are supporting SSA's long-term growth prospects.

Capital markets of SSA frontier markets are still small compared to bigger emerging markets, but are developing rapidly. Nigeria recently kicked off external bond issuance for 2011. Driven by high government financing needs and increasing demand from local institutional investors, local bond markets should continue to grow strongly. Equity markets are still relatively small and illiquid but new IPOs, better regional integration and regulatory standards as well as upgrades to capital market infrastructure could improve this.

Nigeria, Kenya, Ghana and Angola are the most promising frontier markets in terms of size and capital market development. Nigeria is SSA's oil giant with the region's most developed capital markets apart from South Africa. Kenya is the trade hub and financial centre for East Africa. Ghana is a diversified commodity exporter with a history of political stability. Angola is an emerging oil economy but is still plagued by opaque policy making.

Eoin Treacy's view Frontier markets, whether in Europe, Asia, Africa or Latin America are really only suitable for risk tolerant investors with a comparatively long investment horizon. They offer the chance to participate in the early stages of a country's development and to benefit from outsize gains. However, nothing comes without a price and low liquidity, high spreads, occasional extreme volatility, dubious economic governance and political risk are all important factors that need to be considered before such an investment is considered.

A delegate at the November Chart Seminar who is a cotton trader mentioned that he was seeing a number of textile companies relocating to east Africa. He pointed out that because textiles are so cost sensitive, they are often among the first industries to move to a newly emergent economy. As such, they are often a bellwether for where the next investment destination is likely to appear.

It is easy to lump all African countries together but I believe that is a mistake. There is a wide array of economic practices, peoples, cultures, geographies and national resources across the continent. This means that doing one's due diligence is likely to reap benefits over the medium-term. There are a number of African funds in the Chart Library which may be a suitable place to begin one's research.

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