The more important ambiguity, however, concerns sealing the border between Russia and the separatist-held areas of Donetsk and Luhansk. Thursday's agreement says that Ukrainian border guards should resume control of the frontier. This is a rare win for the Ukrainian side, and vital, because as long as there is no functioning Russian-rebel border, the separatist-held areas are in effect a frozen conflict zone. Only with Ukraine's border sealed can there be any hope for stability in the country.

Unfortunately, though, in a clear concession to Putin, the agreement turns re-establishing the border into a process that will take at least until the end of the year, after the separatists have consented, the two regions have held elections, and Ukraine has adopted a new constitution. Until then, Russia may continue to supply the rebels with weapons and troops as needed, until it gets what it wants from the government in Kiev.

As frustrating as this loaded process must be to Poroshenko, he and his European supporters must press ahead in the hope that Ukraine’s border can be resurrected. Whether Ukrainian forces keep or lose control of Debaltseve in the coming days won’t determine the success or failure of the agreement. But if Ukraine can ultimately control its eastern border and regain stability, it will have a chance -- with help from the International Monetary Fund's new $17.5 billion support program -- to restore its wrecked and bankrupt economy.

Eoin Treacy's view

Just how Ukraine can secure a border with Russia when it will lack a clear supply line across separatist-held territory remains a question that has not been answered. The result is that this agreement gives Russia most of what it was looking for without any clear indication that discipline can be enforced on separatists. 

The Russian stock market retested its 2008 low late last year and a reversionary rally is currently underway. Despite the reasonably favourable technical picture this remains a high risk environment subject to political whim. 

UK listed Russian supermarket leader Magnit has a broadly similar pattern to the wider market over the last month.

UK listed Norilsk Nickel is approaching the upper side of a three-year range and would need to sustain breakout to confirm a return to demand dominance beyond the short term. 

UK listed Russian iron-ore, coal and steel producer Evraz has held a progression of higher reaction lows for almost a year. The pace of its advance has picked up since December and a sustained move below 150p would be required to question the consistency of the recovery.