A political crisis will not stop China
Comment of the Day

March 21 2012

Commentary by David Fuller

A political crisis will not stop China

This is a far-sighted column (may require subscription registration, PDF also provided) by Gideon Rachman for the Financial Times. Here is the opening:
My book-shelves in London groan with titles such as Eclipse: Living In the Shadow of China's Economic Dominance and When China Rules the World. But travel to China itself, and you will find plenty of people who are sceptical about the notion that the country is a rising superpower.

The sceptics are not just jaundiced western expats or frustrated Chinese liberals. Wen Jiabao, the country's prime minister, does a pretty good job of talking down the Chinese miracle. He has called the country's economic growth "unbalanced and unsustainable". Last week, he warned that if China does not push ahead with political reform, it is vulnerable to another "cultural revolution" that could sweep away its economic gains.

Mr Wen's comments were swiftly followed by the fall from grace of Bo Xilai, the controversial Communist party boss in Chongqing. This outbreak of high-level political infighting has been seized upon by China-sceptics as further evidence that the country's much-vaunted stability is a myth.

So who is right? The people who think China is a rising superpower, or those who insist that it is a deeply unstable country? Oddly enough, they are both correct. It is clearly true that China has enormous political and economic challenges ahead. Yet future instability is highly unlikely to derail the rise of China. Whatever the wishful thinking of some in the west, we are not suddenly going to wake up and discover that the Chinese miracle was, in fact, a mirage.

My own scepticism about China is tempered by the knowledge that analysts in the west have been predicting the end of the Chinese boom almost since it began. In the mid-1990s, as the Asia editor of The Economist, I was perpetually running stories about the inherent instability of China - whether it was dire predictions about the fragility of the banking system, or reports of savage infighting at the top of the Communist party. In 2003, I purchased a much-acclaimed book, Gordon Chang's, The Coming Collapse of China - which predicted that the Chinese miracle had five years to run, at most. So now, when I read that China's banks are near collapse, that the countryside is in a ferment of unrest, that the cities are on the brink of environmental disaster and that the middle-classes are in revolt, I am tempted to yawn and turn the page. I really have heard it all before.

David Fuller's view Fullermoney has often made these points, as veteran subscribers may recall and I think Gideon Rachman touched on a key psychological factor in his penultimate paragraph above when he spoke of "the wishful thinking of some in the west." In other words, some people fear China because it has progressed from an economic backwater to the second largest economy in the world, in little more than 30 years.

China will have plenty of problems, just like any other country. Meanwhile it still has an enviable GDP growth rate. For investors, the challenge of how to best participate in China's economic success is far from one dimensional.

For instance, ASEAN countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and The Philippines, which supply China with key resources, have done particularly well. This success has enabled them to accelerate development of their own manufacturing bases and consumer sectors. Consequently, these markets are certainly not overvalued.

The entire mining sector has boomed within the last decade by satisfying what seemed to be China's insatiable demand for the raw materials needed to build its vast infrastructure. More recently, the share performances of giants such as BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Cia Vale Do Rio have performed more like the cyclical shares which they used to be rather than growth companies which they have become. This temporary underperformance has enhanced valuations for the miners - BHP currently yields 3.94% and has and estimated PER of 8 - and there is substantially more global infrastructure development in the pipeline.

Over the last year and counting, successful Autonomies, led by the giant Apple which often produce and also sell into Asia's growing consumer market have been among the top performers. They remain the big-cap leaders of this secular bull market and Apple's introduction of a meaningful dividend has wetted appetites in anticipation of payouts from Google and other giants.

Lastly, Chinese equities have been perhaps the worst way to participate in China's continued and enviable growth over the last two years or more. But for how much longer given this historic PER? Watch for an eventual break above the February and mid-March highs near 2600. This would also clear the 200-day MA and signal the resumptions of China's Shanghai A-Shares recovery.

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