A review of dividend paying instruments
Comment of the Day

November 07 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

A review of dividend paying instruments

Eoin Treacy's view At my talk at the Money Show in London on Saturday one of the delegates commented on the fact that high dividend paying shares have been much in the news recently and asked were they now expensive? This got me to thinking about the various higher yielding instruments we have reviewed over the last 18 months.

The companies we have dubbed Autonomies, generally have strong balance sheets, truly global businesses and dominate their respective niches. They often have solid records of dividend increases and a number also have high yields on a relative and absolute basis. The average yield for the most recently updated list is 2.67%. If the non-dividend paying stocks Google, Biogen, Lam Research and Samsung Electronics are removed from the average since they do not pay dividends then it increases to 2.76%.

I created a proxy index for the list of 66 shares using Bloomberg and assumed an equal weighting. The subsequent Autonomies Index can now be found in the Chart Library. It remains in a consistent uptrend with a series of medium-term ranges one above another. It is now testing the upper side of the most recent underlying range as it reverts back towards the 200-day MA. A sustained move below the MA would be required to begin to question the consistency of the medium-term uptrend.

The S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats (2.69%) generally have some of the longest histories of increasing dividends but most do not have particularly high pay-outs. This may be one of the reasons they have successfully been able to sustain them. The Index remains in a relatively consistent uptrend but has been reverting towards 200-day MA for much of the last month. A sustained move below the trend mean would be required to question the consistency of the medium-term uptrend.

Utilities, particularly in the USA and UK have been strong performers for a number of months. The Dow Jones Utilities Average (4.06%) hit a peak near 500 in July, bounced from the region of the MA in September but broke below it yesterday. A clear upward dynamic is now required to check potential for a further test of underlying trading.

The S&P 500 Telecom Services Index (4.68%) has been unwinding a short-term overbought condition since mid October and bounced from the region of the 200-day MA two weeks ago. Some time is probably needed in order to build support before the medium-term uptrend can be reasserted but a sustained move below 145 would be required to question the consistency of the medium-term uptrend.

The JP Morgan Alerian MLP ETN (4.97%) has been ranging with a mild upward bias in the region of $40 since June and has returned to test the short-term progression of higher reaction lows. A sustained move below $39 would signal more than temporary supply dominance.

These charts suggest that the utilities sector is exhibiting the greatest reaction to the election result while the higher yielding MLP sector is still relatively steady. At a minimum this suggests investors have concluded that the risks from the fiscal cliff will not be evenly distributed amongst higher yielding securities.

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