A review of the Autonomies
Eoin Treacy's view The perception of imminent financial ruin appears to be dissipating following
last week's Eurozone summit and as the potential for an interest rate cut by
the ECB increases, the outlook for a number of globally oriented companies is
improving. Sectors that benefit from the growth of the global consumer continue
to outperform. (Also see my last comprehensive review of Autonomies on May
22nd when the potential for mean reversion had increased substantially).
We
define Autonomies as truly global companies that have outgrown their respective
home markets, have brand recognition, dominate their respective niches, possess
solid cash flows and exhibit a strong record of dividend increases.
In
the technology and consumer electronics sector Apple
(1.79%) continues to consolidate above its May low, allowing a steady reversion
towards the still ascending 200-day MA. The May low near $528 can now be considered
a psychological Rubicon for the medium-term uptrend. Microsoft
(2.62%), IBM (1.74%), Samsung
(0.43%) and Intel (3.38%) have all firmed
in the region of their respective 200-day MAs and sustained moves below them
would be required to question potential for additional medium-term upside. Google
remains largely rangebound but has found at least short-term support in the
last few weeks. Qualcomm (1.8%), Microchip
Technology (4.27%) and Cisco (1.87%)
all experienced deeper corrections in May but have all found at least short-term
support and sustained moves below their respective June lows will be required
to reassert supply dominance and offset potential for additional higher to lateral
ranging. High Tech Computer (10.13%) hit
a new reaction low in mid-June and while it has steadied, it will need to break
the short-term progression of lower rally highs to question the downtrend. Lam
Research Corp acquired Novellus Systems last month and found at least short-term
support near the lower side of its 9-month range over the last few weeks.
In
the healthcare sector, Eli Lilly (4.56%),
Bristol Myer Squibb (3.77%), Sanofi
(4.37%) and Merck (4.01%) have completed
relatively lengthy consolidations and are extending their respective breakouts.
Biogen continues to extend its already
impressive advance where its progression of higher reaction lows has been a
hallmark of consistency. Novo Nordisk
(1.81%), Johnson & Johnson (3.59%),
Pfizer (3.83%) and GlaxoSmithKline
(5.14%) are pressuring the upper sides of their respective ranges and clear
downward dynamics would be required to check potential for successful upward
breaks. I've added both Fresenius Medical
Care (1.23%) and Fresenius SE (1.15%)
to the list of Autonomies. The former is pressuring the upper side of its range
while the latter has already broken upwards.
In
the restaurants sector McDonalds (3.18%)
has posted its largest reaction in four years and will need to break the progression
of lower rally highs and sustain a move back above the 200-day MA to suggest
a return to demand dominance. Yum Brands
(1.78%) has returned to test the region of the 200-day MA.
In
the beverages sector, Anheuser Busch InBev
(1.9%), Diageo (2.8%), Remy
Cointreau (1.46%), Pernod Ricard (1.76%)
and Coca Cola (2.58%) have all posted new
highs in the last week and clear downward dynamic will be required to check
potential for additional upside. Asia Pacific
Breweries (2.74%), SAB Miller (2.48%)
and Pepsi (3.04%) are pressuring the upper
side of their respective ranges. Starbucks
(1.29%) continues to pause above its 200-day MA.
In
the foods sector Nestle (3.4%), Unilever
(4.05%), Kraft (2.98%) and Heinz
(3.77%) continue to find support in the region of their respective 200-day MAs
and are pressuring their highs. Sustained moves below their MAs would be required
to question medium-term uptrend consistency.
In
the supplements sector Mead Johnson Nutrition
(1.48%) has held a progression of higher reaction lows since its initial listing.
It pulled back sharply last week to test this sequence but a sustained move
below $77 would be required to question the consistency of the medium-term uptrend.
Following a deep pullback, Herbalife (2.43%)
has at least steadied in the region of $42. (Also see yesterday's Comment of
the Day.
In
the consumer staples sector, Colgate Palmolive
(2.39%) and Kimberly Clark (3.53%) continue
to extend their respective breakouts but are becoming increasingly overextended
relative to the 200-day MA. Reckitt Benckiser
(4.01%), Hengan International (1.76%)
and Uni-Charm Corp (0.75%) have all recently
found support in the region of their respective 200-day MAs. Procter
& Gamble (3.68%) has found at least short-term support in the region
of the lower side of the more than two–year range and a sustained move below
$60 would be required to check potential for an additional bounce.
In
the cosmetics sector, Estee Lauder (0.96%)
has at least paused in the region of the 200-day MA but will need to sustain
a move above it to suggest a return to demand dominance beyond the short term.
NuSkin Enterprises (1.67%) will need to
hold above its May low if the benefit of the doubt is to be given to the upside.
In
the aspirational goods sector, LVMH (2.15%),
Compagnie Financiere Richemont (1.04%),
Christian Dior (2.36%) have all at least
paused in the region of their respective 200-day MAs and sustained moves below
their June lows would be required to question potential for additional upside.
BMW (3.94%) found at least short-term
support last week and will need to hold above €53 if potential for an additional
bounce is to remain credible. Nike (1.62%)
missed a profit estimate last week and fell sharply. It stabilised somewhat
yesterday but the recent lows will need to hold and a process of support building
will need to take place if investor confidence is to be restored.
In
the supermarkets sector Wal-Mart Stores
(2.29%) broke successfully above $60 in mid-May and has rallied to test the
all-time high near $70. This represents a natural area for consolidation but
a sustained move below $65 would be required to begin to question medium-term
scope for additional upside. Tesco (5.18%)
has returned to test the 2008 lows near 300p where it has at least steadied.
However a sustained move above the 200-day MA, currently near 340p but falling
quickly, will be required to signal a return to medium-term demand dominance.
In
the mining sector, BHP Billiton (4.09%)
and Rio Tinto (3.15%) have found at least
short-term support in the region of the lower sides of their respective more
than two-year ranges. Sustained moves below their June lows will be required
to check potential for at least a further bounce.
In
the compressed air sector Linde (2.07%)
and Praxair (2.03%) found support in the
region of their MAs in June while Air Liquide
(2.49%) has found at least short-term support in the region of the lower side
of its more than yearlong range.
In
the energy sector Exxon Mobil (2.67%)
and Royal Dutch Shell (4.98%) found support
in June and have rallied to break short-term progressions of lower rally highs.
A sustained move below their respective June lows would be required to question
potential for continued higher to lateral ranging.
In
the industrials sector Siemens (4.5%)
has found at least short-term support last week in the region of the October
low near €60. A sustained move below that level would be required to check
potential for a further unwind of the short-term oversold condition. Emerson
Electric (3.53%) has lost momentum near $44.50 but will need to sustain
a move above the 200-day MA to confirm a return to demand dominance beyond the
short term. Intertek Group (1.39%) remains
in a relatively consistent medium-term uptrend and a sustained move below the
200-day MA, currently near 2300p would be required to question medium-term uptrend
consistency.
I
have added both Visa and Mastercard
to the list of Autonomies because they fulfil the requirement of truly global
businesses that dominate their niche. Visa (0.69%) hit a new high this week
while Mastercard (0.27%) is rallying towards its peak.