A review of the Autonomies
Eoin Treacy's view The last few months have been characterised by a deep pullback for the majority
of Asian stock markets, relatively steady action by Wall Street, significant
Dollar strength, weakness in sovereign bond markets, a revival in oil markets
but an otherwise moribund environment for the commodity complex.
At
this stage the Dollar is somewhat overbought and some further consolidation
of gains is likely. Treasury prices are oversold in the short-term and potential
for an additional relief rally has increased. Asian stock markets in particular
have at least paused in their declines and potential for an unwind of short-term
oversold conditions relative to the 200-day MAs has increased.
Against
this background, a significant number of the companies we regard as Autonomies
have reverted back to their means where demand appears to be returning to dominance.
I thought it might be instructive to conduct a comprehensive review of this
group of companies since they continue to represent our best bet for a stable
of shares which are likely to outperform over the next decade. We define Autonomies
as large internationally diversified companies that dominate their respective
niches and had in many respects outgrown their domestic markets. They often
had solid records of dividend increases and have balance sheets strong enough
to sustain them. They tend to benefit from superior corporate governance and
have some of the most recognisable global brands.
The
list of companies that can
be considered Autonomies is constantly evolving not least as our knowledge of
individual companies expands and as globalisation remains a powerful theme.
I created this table for all 134 companies in our list to date and highlighted
in yellow those which are also dividend aristocrats. I also highlighted in green
those which are former dividend aristocrats. In an effort to complete this review
in a single day I have not had time to add individual charts for each company
but they are of course available in the Chart Library and can be added to your
Favourites as your wish.
I
reviewed the restaurants sector in yesterday's Comment of the Day but to recap,
both McDonald's and Yum Brands have been mostly rangebound for a year and will
need to hold breakouts to new highs to reconfirm medium-term demand dominance.
Starbucks is currently testing the $70 area and while somewhat overbought in
the short-term, a sustained move below the 200-day MA, currently near $60, would
be required to question medium-term upside potential.
In
the alcoholic beverages sector Diageo, Anheuser-Busch, Heineken and SAB Miller
pulled back to test the region of their 200-day MAs where they have found support.
Diageo has posted the more impressive rebound to date. Remy Cointreau has had
a deeper reaction and has paused in the region of the October lows near €80.
It will need to hold above that level if the medium-term upside is to be given
the benefit of the doubt. Pernod Ricard has also experienced a deeper reaction.
In
the soft drinks sector Coca Cola has found at least short-term support in the
region of $40 which represents the region of the 200-day MA and the upper side
of the underlying trading range. Pepsi is outperforming somewhat.
In
the processed foods and ingredients sector Nestle, Unilever, Mondelez International,
Danone, Ingredion, International Flavors & Fragrance and McCormick have
all found at least short-term support in the region of their 200-day MAs. ADM
and Kerry Group have had some of the more impressive rebounds to date.
In
the vitamins and supplements sector DSM has held a progression of higher reaction
lows since 2011 and continues to extend its uptrend. Herbalife continues to
consolidative above the 200-day MA. Mead Johnson Nutritionals had to cut its
prices by up to 15% in China and this has cut margins. It found support this
week in the region of $70 but a sustained move back above $80 will be required
to confirm a return to demand dominance beyond the short term.
In
the household goods and cosmetics sector, Procter & Gamble continues to
consolidate its earlier breakout and is bouncing from the region of the 200-day
MA. Kimberly Clark, Colgate Palmolive, Uni-Charm, Estee Lauder and L'Oreal have
all found support in the region of their MAs. Hengan International continues
to range with a mild upward bias. Reckitt Benckiser fell less than the sector
and has rebounded to test the psychological 5000p level. NuSkin Enterprises
surged to new highs yesterday on positive earnings expectations.
In
the luxury goods sector, Christian Dior, Prada, Compagnie Financiere Richemont,
Tiffany and Swatch have all found support in the region of their 200-day MAs.
LVMH continues to range with a mild upward bias.
In
the toys and entertainment sector, Disney, 21 st Century Fox Entertainment and
Mattel continue to trend consistently higher; holding progressions of higher
reaction lows. Hasbro and Activision Blizzard found support in the region of
their 200-day MAs.
In
the retail sector, Amazon broke out to new all-time highs this week while Wal-Mart,
Dairy Farm International found support in the region of their 200-day MAs. Casino
Guichard and Tesco experienced deeper declines but have at least paused over
the last couple of weeks.
In
the shoe and clothing sector, Nike and Adidas Solomon both rallied from the
region of their MAs while Inditex has firmed in the region of the MA. Shenzhou
International has pulled back sharply to test the region of the MA while H&M
remains confined to a two-year range.
In
the pharmaceuticals sector, Bayer, Biogen, Pfizer, Novartis, Amgen, Sanofi,
Merck and Eli Lilly have all returned to test the region of their 200-day MA
where they have firmed. Novo Nordisk is bouncing from the lower side of its
range and the region of the 200-day MA. Johnson & Johnson and Bristol Myer
Squibb have so far had shallower reactions while Allergan pulled back sharply
from the April peak and found at least short-term support this week. It will
need to push back above the psychological $100 area to suggest a return to demand
dominance.
In
the tobacco sector both Philip Morris International and British American Tobacco
continue to hold progressions of higher reaction lows and found support in the
region of their MAs over the last couple of weeks.
In
the technology sector ARM Holdings, MediaTek, Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and
Salesforce.com have all pulled back to test the region of their respective 200-day
MAs. Google, Lam Research, Microchip Technologies, Hewlett Packard, Sony, Cisco
Systems, Microsoft and Tata Consultancy remain relative strength leaders and
have posted comparatively shallow reactions. Apple and Lenovo appear to be building
bases. Qualcomm, IBM, Samsung Electronics, Oracle, SAP experienced deeper reactions
and will need to post more impressive rallies to repair investor confidence.
In
the publicity and lobbying sector, WPP, Publicis and Omnicom continue to hold
progressions of higher reaction lows.
In
the banking sector HSBC, Standard Chartered and Barclays all found support at
the lower side of medium-term ranges in the last couple of weeks, Goldman Sachs,
JPMorgan and Citigroup are rebounding having closed the majority of their overextensions
relative to the 200-day MA. BBVA retains a downward bias.
In
the insurance sector AIG Group, Prudential, Chubb, AIA Group and AXA continue
to trend higher in a reasonably consistent manner.
In
the credit card and credit checking sector, Visa and Mastercard continue to
extend their already impressive uptrends while Experian found support in the
region of the 200-day MA three weeks ago.
In
the automotive sector, Nissan, Honda, Toyota and Greatwall Motors are rebounding
having reverted towards the respective trend means. BMW remains mostly rangebound
while Volkswagen found support above the April lows two weeks ago. Following
a difficult couple of years Kia Motors is now holding a progression of higher
reaction lows.
In
the aeronautics sector, Boeing continues to extend the breakout from its two-year
range but is becoming increasingly overextended as it approaches its all-time
highs. EADS continues to hold a progression of higher reaction lows.
In
the industrial sector, Danaher, Tyco International, GE, Rolls Royce, Honeywell,
3M, United Technologies, Ecolab, Illinois Tool Works and Berkshire Hathaway
have had relatively shallow reactions and an increasing number are breaking
out to new all-time highs. Emerson Electric, Intertek Group, ABB and Fanuc all
found support in the region of their MAs, while Siemens continues to underperform
and remains mostly rangebound.
In
the packaging sector, Rexam has firmed above 450p but will need to sustain a
move above 500p to reconfirm demand dominance. Brambles and Amcor continue to
benefit from the weakness of the Australian Dollar as they trend higher.
In
the industrial gases sector, Linde, Praxair and Air Liquide all found support
in the region of their MAs.
In
the chemicals sector, PPG Industries, BASF and Dow Chemical found support near
their trend means. DuPont is consolidating in the region of the upper side of
a two-year range. Akzo Nobel has posted a progression of lower rally highs since
March which it will need to break it to reassert medium-term demand dominance.
In
the seeds and fertiliser sectors, Monsanto has found support in the region of
its 200-day MA, while Potash Corp has firmed at the lower side of its medium-term
range.
In
the mining sector, both BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto are currently trading at
the lower side of their medium-term ranges.
In
the oil and oil service sectors, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Royal Dutch Shell and
Schlumberger are all rallying from areas of previous support.
On
even a brief perusal of the above companies, mean reversion is the most common
quality. However, it is also notable how few companies have broken their respective
uptrends. The relative strength of the industrial, aeronautics and pharmaceutical
sectors is particularly notable not least since these sectors represent the
cutting edge of technological innovation which is likely to help drive productivity
growth in future.