A review of the Nasdaq-100
Eoin Treacy's view Economic results continue to disappoint, with the UK and USA reporting contracting
industrial output today and the EU limping from one crisis to another. Conditions
such as these lend credibility to those expecting a deflationary outcome and
bullish expectations have declined.
Central
banks have responded by committing themselves to avoiding such an outcome. Their
answer has been to lower the cost of capital and increase supply in an effort
to stoke investor demand. This has contributed to increased volatility as market
participants have become reliant on fresh bouts of liquidity provision to boost
returns from risk assets.
As
global growth expectations are pared back, another round of quantitative easing
becomes more rather than less likely and investors are beginning to position
themselves for such an outcome. So far this week, we have reviewed ASEAN stock
markets and consumer related shares. Today, I thought it would be instructive
to look at the constituents of the Nasdaq-100, not least because it remains
a leader among “developed” stock markets.
After
conducting a Chart Library High/Low Filter of the constituents of the Index,
the outperformance of the cutting edge healthcare sector remains apparent. I
first remarked on the rotation from cloud computing into healthcare stocks in
Comment of the Day on January
18th. Since then, the commonality in healthcare has until recently been
quite strong.
Within
the technology sector, cloud computing has been mostly rangebound over the last
year and its commonality has deteriorated. The result is that it is more important
than ever to judge each share on its individual merits. Amazon,
EMC Corp, Citrix
Systems, Oracle and Autodesk
have all been mostly rangebound for more than a year but have held progressions
of higher reaction lows since October. Provided these sequences hold, the benefit
of the doubt can continue to be given to potential for additional higher to
lateral ranging. Google is testing the
upper side of its medium-term range.
Intel,
IBM and Teradata
had become temporarily overextended by the end of the first quarter. They both
pulled back and found support in the region of their respective 200-day MAs
over the last couple of weeks. Sustained moves below their respective MAs would
be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside. Comcast
is one of the few technology oriented companies to have hit a new high in the
last couple of weeks.
Shares
such as Cognizant Technologies, Check
Point Software, BMC Software and Salesforce.com
have experienced greatly technical deterioration and will need to do more to
restore investor confidence.
Altera,
Juniper Networks and Cisco
Systems have returned to areas of previous support and exhibit signs that
demand is returning to dominance. Potential for additional bounces will remain
credible provided they hold above their recent lows.
In
the healthcare sector Alexion Pharmaceutical,
Biogen and Amgen
continue to hit new all time highs but the first clear downward dynamics are
likely to signal the onset of reversions towards their respective 200-day MAs,
Following
relatively lengthy periods of consolidation Gilead
Sciences, Express Scripts and Stericycle
have returned to test their respective peaks. Sustained moves below their 200-day
MAs would be required to question potential for additional upside. Patterson
Cos is also testing the upper side of its multi-year range. Cerner
Group has returned to test the region of the 200-day MA where it will need
to find support if the medium-term uptrend is to remain consistent. Mylan
found support in the region of its MA from mid July and a sustained move below
it would be required to check potential for some additional upside.
On June
28th I highlighted a number of highflying shares that looked susceptible
to mean reversion. Monster Beverage has
pulled back and appears to have found at least near-term support in the region
of the 200-day MA. Starbucks ranged mostly
above $50 and the MA until 2 weeks ago but dropped abruptly last week and extended
the decline this week. It will need to sustain a move above $50 to reassert
demand dominance.
Dollar Tree Stores briefly moved to a
new high but has lost momentum and continues to pull back towards the mean and
its progression of higher reaction lows.
Volatility
has increased for Ross Stores and it
remains susceptible to an additional pullback. TJ
Maxx has had a similar move and has been less volatile but remains susceptible
to mean reversion.
Whole
Food Markets bounced emphatically from the region of the 200-day MA last
week but some additional consolidation is probably warranted before a resumption
of the medium-term uptrend can be sustained. Costco
continues to rally impressively but is becoming increasingly susceptible to
mean reversion.
O'Reilly
Automotive pulled back abruptly from its April peak and has at least paused
in the region of the MA. It will need to break the short-term progression of
lower rally highs to signal a return of demand in the $80 area. Autozone
has so far had a relatively tight consolidation and the benefit of the doubt
can continue to be given to the medium-term upside provided it holds above the
200-day MA.
Bed
Bath & Beyond dropped abruptly in late June and has been ranging below
the MA since. It needs to hold above $55.50 if the medium-term upside is to
continue to be given the benefit of the doubt.
Expedia
is now even more overextended and susceptible to a reversion to the mean.
In
conclusion, while the Nasdaq continues to hold a position of outperformance
relative to most other global induces, there has been considerable divergence
in the performance of various sectors within it. Broadening is a characteristic
shared by a number of the above shares and is identified by a lengthier ranging
phase. If demand is to remain dominant over the medium-term, progressions of
higher reaction lows will need to remain intact, As with any instrument, when
prices become widely divergent from an ascending 200-day MA, the likelihood
of a reversion towards the mean greatly increases. (Also see David's comments
on this subject yesterday).