How can investors use Contrary Opinion while facing the crises and opportunities involved with real life investing? First, the investor needs to realize that generally accepted opinion may be based on false assumptions or may not be thought out to a logical conclusion, and therefore invites a contrary view. Further, it is important to be contrary to words and opinions, not to facts. Words mislead, distort, and delude. Second, avoid thinking and acting in a conventional manner. Conventional wisdom is not the way to make a portfolio grow or maximize returns.

A few further guidelines to the "uncertain art" of economic prophecy follow:

1. Much forecasting literature, both on the economy and the stock market, distills what others say - it is better to be wrong in good company than to be right by oneself.

2. Forecasting techniques are fallible. They are subject to human error, both at the forecaster's end and at the statistical end. Business is people. To forecast business you must predict human beings. But our behaviour patterns are restless and dynamic, and emotions often make for strange statistical measurements.

3. The future is not always a continuation of the past. Be skeptical of past trends being stretched far beyond the present. The elastic may break or snap back when least expected. If you can recognize that consensus hopes or fears are embodied in current valuation levels, then the realization of expectations results in no meaningful change. It is the realization of unexpected outcomes that moves prices."

When a true contrarian buys - even though every indication says "buy" - he is still scared. Contrarian investing is about emotion. The contrarian overcomes his emotion and plays on the emotion (fear or greed) of the crowd by taking a position perceived as radical. We look forward to sharing more from contrarian thinkers and investors in the months to come.

David Fuller's view For me, the rationale behind contrary thinking starts with the realisation that the consensus view usually tells us much more about what people have already done, rather than what the market will do in future.

Alex Seagle also runs the very enjoyable and useful Contrary Opinion Forum. I am delighted to be returning for this event in October. Highly recommended.