Americans With Best Credit in Decades Renew Economy in Borrowing
Americans have made progress putting their finances in order and are ready to borrow again – giving / the world's largest economy another driver of spending and growth.
Household net worth soared to a record high in the first quarter, Federal Reserve data show, and the financial-obligations ratio relating consumer debt to income matched the lowest in 33 years. Consumer loans are rising, and the American Bankers Association reports the share of delinquencies on bank cards is the smallest since 1990.
“Household finances are in the best shape in decades,” said Joseph Carson, director of global economic research at AllianceBernstein LP in New York, with $435 billion in assets under management. “We now have a creditworthy borrower. It's a powerful ingredient” for the U.S. expansion and “definitely a step up from where we have been.”
Credit is thawing gradually for residential mortgages, one reason new-home purchases in June reached the highest since 2008. Lenders also are easing standards for auto loans to expand the pool of buyers and drum up more business. That has put car sales on track for the best pace since 2007, helping companies including General Motors Co., Ford Motor Co. and parts maker Lear Corp. to report better-than-estimated earnings.
Gabriela Magallanes, 23, a Raleigh, North Carolina, hospital research assistant, bought a black 2013 Hyundai Elantra in May after her 24-year-old car broke down. She tapped the auto manufacturer's finance subsidiary for a 60-month loan at 2.9
percent, with monthly payments of $337.
David Fuller's view Some
would argue that the aggregate level of debt in the USA has not contracted since
2008 so there has been no measureable deleveraging. However, this misrepresents
the issue. If we break debt down into three groups we get a better picture of
the situation.
The US government took on a massive additional debt burden as it socialised
private sector liabilities during the credit crisis. This has increased as growth
was slow to reignite. Political impasse has been one of the more notable repercussions
and we are now approaching a fresh political carnival where the debt ceiling
will again be the central topic of conversation.
Corporations binged on debt, locking in the lowest cost of capital anyone could
ever have imagined. The medium-term nature of much of this funding can be classed
as a balance sheet optimisation rather than a specific issue investors are worried
about at present.
Consumers went through a painful consolidation which forced individuals and
families to tighten budgets, defer spending, accept lower wages and pay down
debt. The result is that the consumer balance sheet is now on aggregate in better
shape and demand for goods, services and credit is beginning to recover. Considering
the deflationary pressures the Fed has been combating the re-emergence of consumer
demand could coincide with greater potential for self-sustaining growth and
a pickup in the velocity of money. This should increase the possibility that
the tapering of quantitative easing will take place in the latter portion of
the year.
The export sector and those that were able to offer low cost products have thrived
over the last five years. I thought it might be interesting to identify US
companies that are heavily dependent on the US for their revenue.
The recovery of the financial, real estate and banking sectors has been commented
on in Fullermoney on a number of occasions over the last few years. The food
and retail sectors have also thrived over the last few years by tailoring their
offering.
ConAgra Foods for example has intensified
its focus on health foods. The share broke out of a two-year range in September
and found support in the region of the 200-day MA from early last month. It
is now somewhat overextended once more but a sustained move below the 200-day
MA would be required to question medium-term upside potential.
Ultra Salon Cosmetics is also worthy
of mention and while it has a relatively pricey valuation at a P/E of 33, it
should do well as demand for pampering increases. The share broke successfully
above the psychological $100 level this week and a clear downward dynamic would
be required to question potential for additional upside.