An Attempt to Think Through the Greek Crisis
Eoin Treacy's view As mentioned above, it is hard to foresee how the current situation in Europe will play out, but the one thing we can be sure of is that the crisis is an important turning point for European investors in that it marks the return of country risk. Indeed, regardless of what the European Union may do to help Greece through its current crisis, the new reality is that Greece's funding costs (along with those of other European nations) will, from now on, increasingly be a reflection of Greek fundamentals rather than German fundamentals. This must mean that, like a phoenix rising from the ashes, country risk in Europe is all of a sudden back from the dead. It also means that discerning which countries are set to experience a rise in financing costs, and which countries enjoy a pull-back will once again be a driver of relative stock market performance. In that regards, we hope that our reader will find the equation we offered above both interesting and useful.
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