Anecdotes From The Road: "We Have A SPENDING Problem, Not A Revenue Problem"
Comment of the Day

October 26 2011

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Anecdotes From The Road: "We Have A SPENDING Problem, Not A Revenue Problem"

Thanks to Steve Czech for this edition of his challenging report. Here is a section on consumer deleveraging in the USA:
Since the financial crisis erupted, millions of Americans have ditched their credit cards, accelerated mortgage payments and cut off credit lines that during the good times were used like a bottomless piggybank. Many have resorted to a practice once thought old fashioned-delaying purchases until they have the cash.

As a result, total household debt-through payment or default-fell by $1.1 trillion, or 8.6%, from mid-2008 through the first half of 2011, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Auto loan and credit-card balances in August had their biggest drop since April 2010, the Federal Reserve said.

The national belt-tightening, known as deleveraging, comes as the U.S. economy struggles to fend off a double-dip recession. Paying off bills slows consumer spending on appliances, travel and a slew of other products and services. Home sales, the engine of past economic recoveries, remain depressed.

Many other Americans aren't borrowing because they can't-either because of credit defaults, tightened bank standards or homes that have lost all equity.

"Households appear to have made some progress in deleveraging, but many still face elevated debt burdens and reduced access to credit," Janet Yellen, the Federal Reserve's second-ranking official, said on 10.21.11 during a speech in Denver.

Deleveraging should help the U.S. economy in the long-run, putting households on a sounder footing and easing the nation's reliance on the savings of Chinese and other foreign nationals. But there are short-term dangers.

Eoin Treacy's view The shares of companies dependent on the profligacy of American consumers have understandably underperformed over the last few years as their main market has contracted. Concurrently, the spending power of millions of households across Asia and Latin America is ramping up and shares leveraged to their growth continue to outperform. Deleveraging in the USA is likely to remain a dominant theme for quite some time so it makes sense to develop an interest in markets with the capacity to leverage up.

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