Apple Weighting in Nasdaq-100 to Be Cut; Microsoft Raised
Comment of the Day

April 05 2011

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Apple Weighting in Nasdaq-100 to Be Cut; Microsoft Raised

This article by Kana Nishizawa for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here it is in full:
Apple Inc. will have its weighting in the Nasdaq-100 Index lowered as part of changes to the gauge by Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. to better reflect company market capitalizations.

Apple's representation will be cut to 12.33 percent of the index from 20.49 percent, according to a slide show posted on Nasdaq OMX's website. Microsoft Corp. and Cisco Systems Inc. will have their weightings raised. The changes will take effect on May 2, the presentation said.

"This would probably affect international funds, given that Apple is such a big company globally," said Tim Schroeders, a Melbourne-based money manager at Pengana Capital Ltd., which manages about $1 billion. "Passive funds in particular will be forced to re-weight into those stocks that have had increases in weightings, and in the short term we will see some selling pressure on Apple."

The rebalancing was caused partly by a surge in Apple shares in the past two years that gave the stock a large influence over the Nasdaq-100 Index, the Wall Street Journal reported earlier today. Alan Hely, a spokesman for Apple in London, didn't immediately return a call seeking comment. Phone calls to Nasdaq OMX offices in Singapore and Hong Kong weren't answered. Hong Kong markets are shut for a holiday.

The market capitalization of Apple, which makes iPhones and iPads, has fallen to $314.3 billion from $334.5 billion on Feb. 16, when the company's shares climbed to a record high, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Apple's stock has almost tripled in the past two years.

The weighting for Microsoft, which has a market capitalization of $214.7 billion, will be raised to 8.32 percent from 3.41 percent, the Nasdaq slides showed. Cisco, the San Jose, California-based supplier of data networking products, increased to 3.66 percent from 1.56 percent.

Oracle Corp.'s weighting will be lifted to 6.68 percent from 3.32 percent, while Intel Corp. will be raised to 4.2 percent from 1.75 percent, the presentation said.

Eoin Treacy's view Such a large reweighting is highly likely to have a knock-on effect, particularly as ETFs and other passive funds adapt their positions. As an example, the Powershares QQQ Nasdaq ETF has a market cap of $24 billion and will be compelled to alter its weighting in order to comply with the new composition of the Index. Similar passively managed funds will also be compelled to follow a similar strategy. This process suggests that some additional volatility can be expected between now and May 2nd when the changes will be effected.

The Nasdaq-100 hit a peak of at least near-term significance in February and has entered a period of consolidation. This is allowing a reversion towards the mean, represented by the 200-day MA, to occur. Apple is not only the largest share in the Nasdaq-100 by weighting but is also among its leading members. It has entered a similar period of consolidation and reversion.

Cisco Systems hit a medium-term peak a year ago and has given up most of its rally from the 2009 low. It is now quite overextended relative to the 200-day MA, so there is some potential for a relief rally. However, a sustained move above $22 would be required to question medium-term supply dominance.

Microsoft has been ranging mostly between $20 and $30 since 2001. It is currently mid range and testing the 9-month progression of higher reaction lows. An upward dynamic will be required to indicate the return of demand in the current area.

Oracle, with its leverage to cloud computing, has been among the Index leaders. The share has been trending quite consistently since early 2009 and found support near $30 three weeks ago. A sustained move below that level would be required to question medium-term upside potential.

Intel has been ranging with a mild downward bias since 2003. It has held near $20 since late 2009 but a sustained move above $22 will be required to confirm a return to demand dominance.

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