Article on investment trust discounts
And where discounts are wide, it's dangerous to rule out their predictive quality. The recent widening of the discount on top-performing trust BlackRock World Mining to 17 per cent, for example, is a great buying opportunity for commodity bulls who believe a strong market is set to continue. But for those investors spooked by the recent withdrawal of stimulus in China and the potential effect on demand for commodities, such a discount will look entirely justified. Moreover, discounts normally persist and widen if anticipated NAV falls come through. Discounts can also reflect particular problems in certain sectors, such as the illiquidity of the constituents of the smaller company investment trust sector.
David Fuller's view I agree much more with the article headline
than all the cautioning caveats contained in the text. I have always liked investment
trusts (closed-end funds) mainly because they usually trade at discounts to
net asset value (NAV). To my simple mind, if I like the market or sector covered
and can buy 1£ or 1$ for 90p or 90¢, or better, then that is a reasonably
good way to play the market. Also, investment trusts usually have lower management
costs, if only because they have been around longer. Also, I like being able
to avoid front-end loads and punitive exit charges.
I know
that it is normal for investment trusts to trade at discounts to NAV. That is
why it can be a good idea to sell them when they occasionally move to premiums,
possibly signalling that the market may have become too popular. I suspect that
some of today's remarkably deep discounts to NAV have less to do with the absence
of 'trustbusters' - a good thing in my view - than fear following two savage
bear markets within a decade.
Investment
crowds have always been manic-depressive. Despite the global stock market recovery
to date, depressive sentiments can be detected not far beneath the surface of
this cyclical bull market. Consequently some bargains remain out there, including
in the investment trust sector. I would be interested in any similar coverage
of the USA's closed-end funds, if any subscriber happens to see it.
For the
record, three of the investment trusts mentioned are in my personal long-term
investment portfolio: BlackRock World Mining
(BRWM LN) (where I also opened a leveraged long trade in January), Aberdeen
New Thai (ANW LN) and JPMorgan Indian
(JII LN). I also hold Aberdeen New Dawn
(ABD LN) although it is not listed in the table because the discount to NAV
is currently only 9%. I may open an additional trading long in one or two of
the others in the table, probably favouring Europe or the UK, because recent
devaluations of the euro and sterling will help exporters and make these markets
cheaper for investors in currencies that are stronger at present. However I
have yet to study them all and I wanted to post the list immediately, so that
any of you who may also be interested in investment trusts can commence your
own due diligence.