Asia Pacific Stock Market Review
David Fuller's view For
instance, what does the Greek debt problem and regional contagion risk have
to do with China? Not a lot, really, beyond some temporary influence on sentiment.
What
about China's property bubble, monetary squeeze and lousy stock market performance
(weekly & daily)
since last July?
Well,
I am actually more concerned about supply in the form of new IPOs, a factor
which I have mentioned repeatedly since these soared to twice what we were seeing
in the US stock market last year, despite America's economy and overall stock
market capitalisation being much larger. China moved pre-emptively to check
a developing property bubble (we should have been so lucky in the West); this
appears to be cooling the property market and the PRC has less cause to worry
about inflation.
Also,
China needs to sustain strong GDP growth to create jobs. If its economy continues
to expand at approximately 10% per annum, which is not an unreasonable hypothesis,
what might that support in terms of stock market appreciation when sentiment
improves? Considerably higher levels, I believe, subject to the IPO supply headwind.
Meanwhile,
the Shanghai Composite Index's decline shown above looks somewhat overstretched
and has lost downward momentum since the second half of May. A close beneath
2480 is required to offset current scope for sideways to higher ranging.
China
looks like a recovery candidate but the best way to play it, so far, has been
via its Asian suppliers of commodities. Some of these countries are also popular
tourist destinations and additionally have their own developing assembly and
manufacturing sectors. Indonesia (weekly
& daily), Thailand (weekly
& daily) and The Philippines
(weekly & daily)
remain above their 200-day MAs and have been generally steady during stock market
turmoil in the West.
Nevertheless,
these are not the most obvious continuation patterns and the overall uptrends
have lost much of their earlier consistency. Consequently they need to hold
above their recent reaction lows, something they are unlikely to do if the S&P
500 Index (weekly & daily)
breaks beneath its lows near 1040 for more that a day or two. Even if these
Asian leaders remain steady, we should not be surprised to see some further
sideways ranging given the choppy activity generally, which is a sign of uncertainty.
This
review continues next week. For much more on stock markets, please listen to
Thursday's Audio.