Asian and commodity related government bond yields
Comment of the Day

June 19 2013

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Asian and commodity related government bond yields

Eoin Treacy's view The impact of Japan's quantitative easing has been felt far and wide with the performance of JGB's standing out for special mention. 10-year yields have doubled since the advent of Japan's extraordinary monetary policy, breaking a lengthy progression of lower rally highs in the process. A sustained move below 0.75% would now be required to question medium-term potential for further yield expansion.

While Japan's financial markets have garnered the most column inches it is also worth highlighting that yield expansion has been evident right across the Asian and commodity related sovereign bond sectors. Singapore's 10-year yield has surged from 1.4% to 2.14% in the last month. Indonesian, Malaysian, Korean, Taiwanese and Thai yields have also rallied in most cases to break medium-term progressions of lower rally highs.

Indian yields have contrasted sharply with the above examples and have compressed over the last month while Chinese yields have been quite steady.

Among commodity oriented markets, South African yields have surged from 6% to test 8%. Brazilian, Mexican and Colombian yields have also surged to break medium-term progressions of lower rally highs.

Australian yields continue to form a base while New Zealand yields failed to sustain the downward break in March and have since returned to test the upper side of the more than yearlong base. Canadian yields broke out of a yearlong base in May.

Commonality has long been an important topic of conversation at The Chart Seminar because it is such a reliable analytical tool. When we observe that such a wide swathe of the global sovereign bond market has experienced trend deterioration, it would be folly to ignore the implications. Powerful trends often lose consistency at the penultimate lows, therefore we can at least conclude that this surge in yields represents a warning shot for the multi-year pattern of demand dominance. Despite short-term overbought conditions sustained moves below their respective 200-day MAs would be required to question potential for further yield expansion.

Back to top