Asian and commodity related government bond yields
Eoin Treacy's view
The impact of Japan's quantitative easing has been felt far and wide with the
performance of JGB's standing out for special mention. 10-year
yields have doubled since the advent of Japan's extraordinary monetary policy,
breaking a lengthy progression of lower rally highs in the process. A sustained
move below 0.75% would now be required to question medium-term potential for
further yield expansion.
While
Japan's financial markets have garnered the most column inches it is also worth
highlighting that yield expansion has been evident right across the Asian and
commodity related sovereign bond sectors. Singapore's
10-year yield has surged from 1.4% to 2.14% in the last month. Indonesian,
Malaysian, Korean,
Taiwanese and Thai
yields have also rallied in most cases to break medium-term progressions of
lower rally highs.
Indian
yields have contrasted sharply with the above examples and have compressed over
the last month while Chinese yields
have been quite steady.
Among
commodity oriented markets, South African
yields have surged from 6% to test 8%. Brazilian,
Mexican and Colombian
yields have also surged to break medium-term progressions of lower rally highs.
Australian
yields continue to form a base while New Zealand
yields failed to sustain the downward break in March and have since returned
to test the upper side of the more than yearlong base. Canadian
yields broke out of a yearlong base in May.
Commonality
has long been an important topic of conversation at The Chart Seminar because
it is such a reliable analytical tool. When we observe that such a wide swathe
of the global sovereign bond market has experienced trend deterioration, it
would be folly to ignore the implications. Powerful trends often lose consistency
at the penultimate lows, therefore we can at least conclude that this surge
in yields represents a warning shot for the multi-year pattern of demand dominance.
Despite short-term overbought conditions sustained moves below their respective
200-day MAs would be required to question potential for further yield expansion.