Australia
Eoin Treacy's view The persistence of the ASX's rally since late
November has been impressive - rallying for 13 of the last 14 weeks. Unsurprisingly
a short-term overbought condition is evident but perhaps more important is that
the Index has pushed above the psychological 5000 level for the first time since
2008. As the Index extends this breakout it is creating more of cushion for
the inevitable consolidation process that will follow. This adds weight to the
possibility that the move above 5000 will be sustained. (Also see Comment of
the Day on December
27th)
The
banking sector has been one of the greatest beneficiaries of the RBA's interest
rate cuts and the perception that these will continue for the rest of the year.
The Financials Index reasserted its outperformance
relative to the wider market from mid-January
and clear downward dynamics would be required to check momentum.
In
order to get a more complete impression of the market I thought that a review
of the ASX's better performing sectors might be instructive.
The
Consumer Staples sector broke out
to new all-time highs in January and continues to extend its advance. It is
becoming increasingly susceptible to mean reversion but a break in the progression
of higher reaction lows would be required to suggest such a process is underway.
.
The
Healthcare sector has been outperforming
for more than a year, led by Ramsay Healthcare.
It continues to hold a progression of higher reaction lows and these would need
to be broken to suggest a more than a reaction.
The
Telecoms sector has been led higher by
Telstra. The share has paused in the region
of A$4.60 and will need to sustain a move above A$4.70 to reassert medium-term
demand dominance.
The
Utilities sector continues to trend consistently
higher and a sustained move below the 200-day MA would be required to question
medium-term scope for additional upside.
The
Industrials sector has rallied to test
the upper side of its more than three-year range. A sustained move above 4000
would confirm a return to medium-term demand dominance. Brambles
is the Index's largest weighting and is leading it higher. The share broke out
to new 5-year highs in November and continues to extend the advance.
The
Materials sector rallied to break its
almost two-year downtrend by early December and has had a progression of higher
reaction lows since July 2012. A sustained move back below the 200-day MA, currently
near 10,500, would be required to question medium-term scope for continued higher
to lateral ranging.
The
broad based nature of the current stock market rally is supportive of the view
that the resurgence of investor interest in Australian equities is more than
a short-term phenomenon.