Autonomies that have returned to test the region of their 200-day Mas
Eoin Treacy's view We have previously commented on the rotation that was evident between the consumer
and industrial sectors, with the latter moving to a position of outperformance
from early this year.
At
the present juncture, the industrial sector has hit at least a near-term peak
and mean reversion is becoming a reality for an increasing number of shares.
The consumer sector led in terms of its mean reversion and a substantial number
of shares are now trading in the region of their respective 200-day MAs.
One
important consideration is that P/E ratios for the consumer sector are at a
premium to the wider market. Therefore while it offers exposure to the growth
of the middle class globally, the potential for what may be lengthy ranging
has increased.
L'Oreal,
Procter & Gamble, Reckitt
Benckiser, Colgate Palmolive, PepsiCo,
Estee Lauder, Christian
Dior, Walt Disney, Mattel,
Hasbro and Amazon
are examples of shares that have pulled back to the region of their MAs. Coca
Cola, Nestle, Unilever
and Wal-Mart have dropped below their
MAs.
If
we are correct in expecting a more rangebound environment, then the majority
of these shares should hold most of their earlier advances as at least a partial
process of valuation contraction unfolds.