Beware of gushing optimism
Comment of the Day

February 04 2013

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Beware of gushing optimism

Thanks to a subscriber for this cautious report on Myanmar which may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section
Given Myanmar's obvious economic growth potential, it is not surprising that people are looking for ways to put their money to work. Unfortunately, with no stock exchange and a limited OTC market, there are not too many easy ways to do that—yet. There are, however, a few public equities with varying levels of exposure.

For those investors who recognised the opportunity for high returns in Asia's final frontier economy and purchased stocks as soon as the political and economic reforms gained momentum, 2012 was a fruitful year.

The best known is Yoma Strategic Holdings, the purest of all Myanmar-focussed equity investments with 100% of 2012's top line coming from Myanmar. The real estate developer posts a 1Y gain of 235.9%, although if we started the clock in mid-October 2011, it would boast a colossal 1Y return of 770%.

The stock getting the most play recently is Aussino, a struggling textile company. If a reverse takeover is successful, it will become the owner of a number of petrol stations in Myanmar instead. Interestingly, the SGX have yet to give the RTO a green light although the stock is currently the highest YoY performer, having rocketed 537.5%.

Interra, with 2 out of 5 of its gas fields located in Myanmar, is the second highest performer, with an annual return of 378%. Most other stocks have only limited exposure to Myanmar but may have some plans to enter with projects at some point.

Eoin Treacy's view Considering the success of the original Asian Tigers and the more recent evolution of China, India and part of the ASEAN region, the opening up of Myanmar has whet the appetite of risk tolerant investors. Given the country's significant mineral wealth and potential for growth similar to its neighbours, the long-term prospects for the country are impressive. However, Myanmar is a frontier market and as such suffers from low, but improving, standards of governance and small illiquid markets. This means that while advances can be truly impressive, the subsequent falls, when larger participants seek to take profits, can be equally abrupt.

Yoma Strategic, listed in Singapore, has a market cap of approximately S$950 million and is perhaps the most liquid of the companies offering exposure to Myanmar. The share hit at least a short-term peak near S90¢ last week and looks like to retrace more of its recent powerful advance. However, the medium-term upside can continue to be given the benefit of the doubt provided it continues to hold its progression of higher reaction lows, currently near S70¢

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