Bond vigilantes on the run
David Fuller's view Judging
from the chart action, last week's political discussions in Europe have frightened
the daylights out of some bond vigilantes who had been shorting so-called peripheral
sovereign debt.
For instance,
the Spanish Government 10-Yr Bond Yield (weekly
& daily) have slumped back
to their August to October lows in the region of 5 percent which is a potential
support level.
Italian
10-Yr Bond Yields (weekly &
daily) have seen a lesser decline
but no one can now doubt the importance of last month's two peaks just beneath
7.5 percent and there is currently no evidence that we have seen the end of
this slide.
In contrast,
Greek 10-Yr Bond Yields (weekly
& daily) have continued to
edge higher and Portugal's 10-Yr Bond Yields (weekly
& daily) have barely paused
within their uptrend.
Consequently,
there are no prizes for guessing which two countries are most likely to exit
the euro, sooner or later, and it is certainly not Spain or Italy. Meanwhile,
vigilantes who were previously short bonds in the two larger Southern European
countries have clearly retreated to the sidelines. It would be premature to
assume that they will remain there because rescue of the euro remains a work
in progress.
Austerity
agreements and much closer fiscal union are part of the process. However, the
bigger, longer-term challenge will be GDP growth generation within the single
currency's new disciplines.