Sub-Saharan jihadists: The politicisation of jihadist groups is a worrying trend and we see them getting a stronger foothold in Africa. We will return to this topic, but the most immediate threat is in Nigeria, where Boko Haram may well ignite a sectarian war with Southern Christian militia in the next few months, raising fears over disruptions to Nigerian oil and bidding up Brent.

Eoin Treacy's view Iran has been the focus of geopolitical fears over the last few months as Libyan supply has begun to recover and the US has pulled out of Iraq. However, as a major oil and gas exporter Iran has a vested interest in both high prices and being able to avail of them. Therefore it is unlikely to do anything to limit its potential to continue to produce oil and gas, while doing everything in its power to ensure prices remain high.

Nigeria is a different story. The country is highly ethnically diverse. In addition, it is divided along religious lines - mostly Muslim in the oil poor north and Christian in the oil rich Niger delta. Tensions have been simmering for years over access to the country's remarkable oil wealth. Concerns over the potential for a jihadist movement to gain traction have garnered media attention of late with atrocities by both Muslims and Christians. The ability of the government to quell such insurrection is likely to be tested in 2012.

Meanwhile Brent crude is trading in backwardation and challenging the almost yearlong progression of lower rally highs. A clear downward dynamic will be required to question potential for a successful push back above the $115 area.