Brazil: The quest for Growth
Brazil invests approximately 2.0% of GDP in infrastructure, which is barely enough to compensate for depreciation and keep up with population growth. Brazil would have to double or even triple investment in infrastructure for the next 20 years to reach the same level of a country like South Korea.
Public investment in infrastructure declined in the federal government last ten years, as it was one of the few items that the government could cut to adjust its fiscal accounts. Excessive bureaucracy also impairs investments.
The government estimates that the FIFA World Cup in 2014 and the Olympic Games in 2016 will demand investments that will exceed all investments done by the federal government in seven years.
The government is making an effort to raise investments through the National Development Bank (BNDES), and also offers tax incentives for bonds aimed at financing infrastructure projects.
The decision to offer airport concessions to the private sector reflected the government's inability to invest in the sector and concern about the World Cup. However, the concessions were mainly awarded to pension funds of state-owned enterprises, and there is strong ideological resistance against privatization.
The lack of public investment in infrastructure and access to financing and high regulatory risk depress private investment too.
Eoin Treacy's view Brazil and Russia are often conflated with India and China to form the BRIC 
 acronym. However the individual countries represent some quite distinct themes 
 and while convenient, it is not altogether helpful to consider them as a unified 
 whole. 
Brazil 
 is a middle income country. It already has a consumer led economy and well established 
 middle class. Its position as a major agriculture, industrial resource and energy 
 exporter has allowed it to benefit enormously from demand growth in Asia. Additionally, 
 a number of Brazilian companies compete globally in high value added manufacturing 
 sectors such as aerospace. 
President 
 Lula's fiscal reforms nearly a decade ago, in conjunction with the boost from 
 commodity prices set the country on the road to creditor status and a firm currency. 
 It is reasonable to conclude that the bullish proposition rests on continued 
 reform and improving standards of governance that can help drive productivity 
 growth.. 
It 
 is to be hoped that investment associated with major sport events will be accompanied 
 by roads, railways, airports, schools and other assets that contribute to growth. 
 Bread and circuses has long been a favoured policy route for politicians everywhere 
 but does little to improve economic development or competitiveness. Infrastructure 
 bottlenecks in the commodity sector are an impediment to growth and need to 
 be eliminated to maximise the country's competitive advantages. Labour productivity 
 needs to be a priority. 
It 
 is interesting that the Real has weakened since the government abandoned overt 
 efforts to stop it strengthening. Perhaps the realisation that the country needs 
 to do everything possible to foster foreign investment rather than simply adopting 
 a go it alone attitude has something to do with this change. The US 
 Dollar found support in the region of the 2008 lows in July and rallied 
 impressively. It has since found support in the region of the 200-day MA on 
 a number of occasions and a sustained move below it would be required to question 
 medium-term scope for additional upside. 
The 
 Bovespa Index has responded well to the 
 lowering of interest rates, the weaker Real and scrapping of the IOF tax. It 
 pushed back above the psychological 60,000 in late January and retested the 
 70,000 area three weeks ago. The Index found at least short-term support in 
 the region of 65,000 yesterday and a sustained move below 64,000 would be required 
 to question medium-term scope for additional upside. 
The 
 outperformance of the Brazilian affiliates of foreign multinationals would appear 
 to support the contention that companies with an advantage in their standards 
 of governance and balance sheet support are being rewarded with a premium. 
In 
 the Telecommunications sector, TIM Participacoes 
 (1.17% yield) is 77% owned by Telecom Italia. The share broke upwards in February 
 and has been rallying for the last six weeks. While increasingly overbought 
 in the short-term a sustained move below the MA, currently near BRL9.5 would 
 be required to begin to question medium-term upside potential. Telefonica 
 Brazil (3.22%) is 35% owned by its Spanish parent. The share remains in 
 a consistent step sequence uptrend and a sustained move below BRL50 would be 
 required to begin to question medium-term uptrend consistency. 
In 
 the Brewing sector Ambev (2.47%) is 62% 
 owned by Belgium/US brewer AB-Inbev. The share is accelerating higher and at 
 risk of a reversion towards the trend mean. However, a reaction of greater than 
 BRL8 would be required to check momentum beyond a brief pause. 
In 
 the Utilities sector, AES Tiete (10.43%) 
 is 32% owned by the USA's AES Corp. The share remains in a relatively consistent 
 medium-term uptrend and a sustained move below BRL 24 would be required to question 
 that view. Tractebel Energia SA (4.86%) 
 is 69% owned by France's GDF Suez. The share also remains in a consistent medium-term 
 uptrend. Cia de Transmissao de Energia Eletrica 
 Paulista (1.85%) is 54% owned by Colombia's Interconexion Electrica. The 
 share broke out of a three-year range in December, pulled back to find support 
 in the region of the 200-day MA and posted a new all-time high three weeks ago. 
 A sustained move below BRL55 would be required to check potential for additional 
 upside.