Most models of the Pacific are projecting a weaker El Niño than they did last month. This difference is largely due to a cool Madden Julian Oscillation drifting through the warming El Niño conditions and slowing the warming process.

The El Niño looks as if it will be a weak-to-moderate event, peaking in late November/December. It will last through winter but at this point threatens to end in early to mid-spring.

Winter will be shaped by a weak to moderate El Niño and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation. This normally produces a colder, wetter winter than last year, but not a colder than normal winter for most of the North America.

History and a China/US agricultural analogy map from the 1950s and 60s show that the phase changes of the PDO are more disruptive for Chinese agriculture than for US.

The weather outlook for South America shows that northeastern Brazil faces problems with precipitation, but the Argentina and Southern Brazil should have good growing conditions. This should provide a good enough grain and oilseed harvest to help bring down prices in the coming season.

David Fuller's view Most models of the Pacific are projecting a weaker El Niño than they did last month. This difference is largely due to a cool Madden Julian Oscillation drifting through the warming El Niño conditions and slowing the warming process.

The El Niño looks as if it will be a weak-to-moderate event, peaking in late November/December. It will last through winter but at this point threatens to end in early to mid-spring.

Winter will be shaped by a weak to moderate El Niño and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation. This normally produces a colder, wetter winter than last year, but not a colder than normal winter for most of the North America.

History and a China/US agricultural analogy map from the 1950s and 60s show that the phase changes of the PDO are more disruptive for Chinese agriculture than for US.

The weather outlook for South America shows that northeastern Brazil faces problems with precipitation, but the Argentina and Southern Brazil should have good growing conditions. This should provide a good enough grain and oilseed harvest to help bring down prices in the coming season.