Anyone who is familiar with the "triple witching hour" will understand what is happening with the weather. The expiration of three financial instruments results in extra stock volatility. Similarly, the peak of three climate oscillations, hitting at the same time, results in very volatile stormy weather. Just ask Washington D. C. The volatile "Snowmageddon" closed down the federal government for four days.

Of course there are a number of factors shaping this winter's weather, not just the three climate cycles. The sun is currently at the bottom of a solar cycle, radiating less energy. Volcanoes are exploding immediately north and south of the US, sending chemicals high in the atmosphere. The tropical Atlantic is shifting its warmth northward. El Niño is slamming warm water along the West Coast. The Indian Ocean Dipole is heating the Indian Ocean and bringing rain to southeastern Australia.

All of these factors have combined to create a complex and abnormal global weather pattern, especially in North America. In the Northwest, the Vancouver Winter Olympics have been fighting to keep Mt. Cypress from melting into a giant mound of slush during the warmest winter weather on record. In the South, storms have been taking a cross-country road trip on Route 66, and Interstate 40. At one point every state except Hawaii had snow on the ground. Storm after storm slammed the Midwest while Nor'easters ripped up the East Coast. Meanwhile Northern Canada roasted as cold air and winter storms glided south.

The cold weather was not confined to North America. According to Rutgers University Global Snow Lab, the amount of snow in the Northern Hemisphere, covering 20.141,730 sq. mi. or 52,166,840 km2, was the second greatest amount on record. Rutgers has been keeping track of snow using satellite observations since 1967 and the only time it has recorded more snow was in 1978. (Ironically, back in those days scientists fretted about global cooling and used the record snow to confirm their fears. Now we are hearing that the snowfall is confirming global warming!) The snow has smothered Europe down to the balmy Mediterranean, portions of the Middle East, China and Japan. China, in particular, has suffered an abnormally harsh winter with the worst blizzards in over six decades lashing the western provinces and freezing northern ports.

While a variety of complex climate patterns have combined to create this misery, three main patterns, the Arctic Oscillation, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation are the major culprits. All three of these have united to make this winter memorable. The big question is whether they will continue to make 2010 a year of misery.

David Fuller's view If the extreme weather conditions experienced by North America and Europe this winter similarly affect the spring and summer crop cycle we can expect some turbulence in prices for staple foods.

The grain and bean complex has been ranging since 4Q 2008 in potential base formations, as you can see from these 10-year weekly charts: corn, wheat, oats, soybeans and rough rice. However these patterns do not have the rounding symmetry generally shown by the bases which supported upside breakouts in 2006. Prices have also weakened within these formations this year, causing them to test prior support near their lower boundaries.

At today's levels, staple food prices are reasonably beneficial for the global economy, being neither so weak that farmers' incomes are under pressure or dependent on costly subsidies, nor so strong that inflationary problems arise.

I would not be surprised if the unwinding of buy-and-hold tracker fund positions is not at least partially responsible for some of the current weakness in these commodities. While widely hyped by their promoters, these have been a poor investment due to contango costs and are likely to remain so more often than not. The bull phases in these agricultural commodities tend to be sharp moves of relatively short duration, relative to the expensive retracements and lengthy ranging phases.

Nevertheless, the lower prices fall at the beginning of the North American and European crop cycle, the more tempted I would be to open a speculative long trade in one or more of the grain and bean complex commodities. Weather related scares are not uncommon, although thankfully there are few widespread crop disasters. (Note: western production of rough rice is negligible but its trends often overlap with the other grains and beans.)