Browning Newsletter on Climate: El Niño - Going�Going�Gone
Comment of the Day

June 17 2010

Commentary by David Fuller

Browning Newsletter on Climate: El Niño - Going�Going�Gone

My thanks to Alex Seagle of Frazer Management Associates for this fascinating letter written by Evelyn Browning Garriss. Here is the opening, posted without further comment
Amazing. It was the vanishing act that completely changes this year's climate. The El Niño disappeared!

More Amazing. Last winter's El Niño has already been one for the record books. It usually takes a year or more for the Tropical Pacific to gradually warm up from a cool La Niña to a balmy El Niño. Instead, last year the ocean flipped from one to the other in only three months. By June, the trade winds had weakened, the ocean waters had warmed and the globe began to experience typical El Niño weather.

Amazing continues. Now, against all expectations, the Pacific waters have cooled equally rapidly.

To say that this development is a surprise is an understatement. It was completely unexpected. Until mid-March, most oceanologists were expecting the Pacific to cool and the El Niño to fade out by June. Most models then predicted that the Pacific would remain neutral for the rest of the year. Instead, the temperatures plummeted and the El Niño was gone by the end of March. By the end of April, the temperatures had dropped from above average to below average. By now, the temperatures are -0.9°C (-1.6°F) below normal - technically cold enough to be classified as a La Niña if the cool temperatures continue.
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