After two years of global food prices rising faster than the rate of inflation, a key question for consumers and national economies is whether this growing season will be better than last year's. In particular, will the US, the world's largest food exporter, have a good year? Will the drought that covered as much as 70% of the continental US finally end? The answer depends upon the Atlantic Ocean - how much heat and precipitation it generates.

Snow! For farmers, it's "white gold"! For drivers, it's a mess. No matter how you feel about it, late winter brought snow and desperately needed moisture to much of the United States. Snow covered nearly 60% of the US. Storms carried 6.3 inches (16.0 cm) of snow as far south as Paradise, Arizona, 40 miles (64.4 km) from the Mexican border.

The good news is that the snowstorms have been widely scattered. Initially, they pounded the Northeast with a vicious Nor'easter, (disarmingly named Storm Nemo by the Weather Channel), then lashed the Midwest and the Southern Plains. The month finally ended with another Nor'easter. Every section of the nation received rain or snow. By the end of the month, over 1500 snowfall and 1800 precipitation records were broken.

The US desperately needed the moisture. For two years, a drought baked the nation. By the beginning of February, 69.7% of the contiguous 48 states were dry or in drought conditions. Even now, almost two-thirds of the country is dry.

The multi-million dollar question is whether we will continue to see more precipitation. Will there finally be enough to break the drought?

David Fuller's view We know that there is now enough moisture for planting in the USA's grain belt. However, will there be sufficient additional moisture, and how great is the risk of another destructive heat wave?

This is a fascinating analysis in a beautifully illustrated publication.