Since the terms of the swap were announced April 14, the yield investors demand to buy Argentine bonds over U.S. Treasuries has climbed 213 basis points, or 2.13 percentage points, to 8.14 percentage points. The spread for major emerging market economies has climbed 116 basis points to 3.46 percentage points over the same period.

Boudou said May 19 that about $8.5 billion, or 46 percent, of the eligible debt has been tendered in the restructuring so far. The offer, as measured in net-present value terms, was worth about 42.5 cents last week, according to RBS Securities Inc. The restructuring closes June 7.

Creditors have filed about 140 individual and 18 class action lawsuits in the U.S., winning judgments totaling about $6.4 billion, Argentina said in a prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on April 28. As much as $4 billion of defaulted debt remains in the hands of investment funds pursuing litigation, Boudou said in a May 21 interview on Canal 7 television.

Eoin Treacy's view Argentina has been locked out of the global bond market for a long time and has gone through a painful period of fiscal reform. Poor economic governance has been a headwind for the country and it remains to be seen if a cohesive policy of economic recovery can be transferred from one government to another. If standards of civil and economic governance can be seen to continue to improve, Argentina has a real chance of continued economic success. If not, then the boom to bust of previous regimes is likely to be repeated. (Also see Comment of the Day on April 1st and March 4th).

The Merval Index failed to sustain the break to new all time highs and pulled back below the 200-day moving average on Friday, breaking the medium-term progression of rising major reaction lows. A sustained move back above 2200 is now needed to indicate a return to demand dominance.

Argentina was one of a small number of indices that managed to post new all time highs over the last year. Most of the others were also in Latin America. Colombia posted a large weekly key reversal three weeks ago and while one might rationalize some loss of consistency in the region of the prior high as acceptable, the Index needs to hold above 11,500 if it is to sustain the medium-term bullish outlook.

Mexico also failed to sustain the break to new all time highs and has now pulled back to test the psychological 30,000 level and the 200-day moving average. This is also the largest pull back since March 2009. It needs to find support in the current region if the medium-term bullish case is to be reasserted.

Chile paused above the previous high from January and is now testing the lower side of its range. A sustained move below 3700 could indicate the beginning of a somewhat deeper correction but a sustained move below 3500 would be required to question the consistency of the medium-term uptrend.

Brazil has been ranging in the region of the prior high since October but broke below the 200-day moving average earlier this month and below the psychological 60,000 last week. It needs to sustain a move back above 64,000 to indicate demand has regained the upper hand.