Buffett Still Buying Stocks, Sees 'Good Value'
Comment of the Day

March 05 2013

Commentary by David Fuller

Buffett Still Buying Stocks, Sees 'Good Value'

Here is the opening from this interview by CNBC
Warren Buffett still sees "good value" in stocks, even as the Dow Jones Industrial Average approaches an all-time high.

On CNBC's Squawk Box, Buffett said Berkshire Hathaway is still buying stocks, even though prices have increased.

"Anything I bought at $80 I don't like as well at $100. But if you're asking me if stocks are cheaper than other forms of investment, in my view the answer is yes. We're buying stocks now. But not because we expect them to go up. We're buying them because we think we're getting good value for them."

He said stocks are not "as cheap as they were four years ago" but "you get more for your money" compared to other investments. He added, "The dumbest investment, in my view, is a long-term government bond."

And:

Buffett said it's "quite unlikely" he'll hire another portfolio manager, in part because he's so happy with Combs and Weschler. "We hit the jackpot with these two."

Buffett isn't too worried that the automatic government spending cuts known as the sequester will slow down the U.S. economy too much.

"We're continuing to see a slow recovery," he said. "It hasn't taken off, but it hasn't stopped either."

Buffett said that while the sequester will reduce the government's stimulus of the economy by cutting back on the deficit the remaining spending is still providing the economy a lot of "juice."

"It's not galloping at all, but we are making progress bit by bit. Everybody would love to see it faster. But it's not going into reverse and I do not think the sequester will cause it to go into reverse."

And:

Buffett has "enormous respect" for Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, but thinks it will be interesting to see what happens when the Fed begins to unwind its efforts to keep interest rates very low. He said that rates near zero have pushed stocks higher than they would have gone otherwise and the global markets are on a "hair trigger," looking for any sign the central bank may start raising rates.

"I think the Fed will try to give little signals here and all of that. But in the end, there are an awful lot of people who want to get out of a lot of assets if they think the Fed is going to tighten a lot."

The results of higher rates, he said, "will be very noticeable" in the markets. While stocks will be hurt by higher rates, Buffett said other investments will also be affected and he still thinks equities are the best thing to buy now.

David Fuller's view In my opinion, Warren Buffett is better at distilling important and seemingly complex investment subjects down to brief common sense points than anyone else I have listened to over the last 45 years.

I am reassured that he appears to prefer equities to all other asset classes available, and also regards long-term US Treasuries as the "dumbest" investment to hold today. These views are very much in line with what Fullermoney has been saying for many months.

Mr Buffett's comment, "Interest rates are like gravity" for investments, says it all. The biggest known stumbling block for investments will be the end of QE and rising interest rates. I also agree with Mr Buffett's view that quality equities will be generally less affected than most other liquid investments and not least long-dated Treasury bonds as rates rise.

Currently, we can only guess today whether the end to super-accommodative monetary policies will cause corrections for stock markets or perhaps another bear market. There are too many variables to be more precise at this time. However, I would regard low yielding equities as among the more vulnerable at that time.

Nevertheless, if the secular valuation contraction that Fullermoney has repeatedly referred to during this century to date is now in its latter stages, and I believe it is, once the shakeout caused by the ending of quantitative easing (QE) has occurred, stock markets should be entering their next long-term secular bull market. For reference, the last secular bull market ran from 1983 into 1999.

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