Platinum fell this year to $1,516.75 an ounce at 11:30 a.m.in London today, declining in the first three quarters. The last time that happened, in 2001, prices rallied more than 10 percent in the final three months. The Standard & Poor's GSCI gauge of 24 commodities advanced 3.8 percent, led by gasoil, gold and cattle. The MSCI All-Country World Index of equities dropped 8.1 percent this year, while Treasuries returned 8.9 percent, a Bank of America Corp. index shows.

Supply will decline next year in both South Africa and Russia, which together account for 88 percent of the global total, Barclays estimates. Mining expenses rose 30 percent last year in South Africa and 13 percent in Russia, according to UBS AG. Anglo American Platinum Ltd., the world's biggest producer, said in July it expected costs to reach 12,600 rand ($1,561) an ounce this year, 7.4 percent more than in 2010.

Eoin Treacy's view China has been the leader in road construction over the last decade and other parts of Asia are beginning to pick up that mantle. China is now also the world's largest automobile market. India and Indonesia are investing in roads and demand for automobiles is also increasing. Automobiles reflect part of the wider trend of Asian dominance of the consumer sector's demand growth.

The automobile sector is highly competitive. Clear winners and losers have become evident. BMW was a notable stalwart but pulled back sharply from July and while recent action has been encouraging, more is needed to confirm a return to medium-term demand dominance. India's Tata Motors, China's Greatwall Motors and Donfeng Motors share a similar pattern of consolidation over much of this year but have been notable for their relative strength compared to the wider global sector. Korea's Hyundai Motors and Kia remain the global relative strength leaders and continue to trade above their respective 200-day MAs.

Another way to access this theme is through catalytic converter manufacturers since every car regardless of brand now needs one. Companies such as Johnson Matthey and Umicore may offer better exposure to growth in automobile demand than any single car manufacturer

UK listed Johnson Matthey is a European dividend aristocrat and yields 2.82%. The share encountered resistance in the region of the 2008 peak from early this year and broke below the 200-day MA in August. It has since rebounded impressively and a sustained move below 1700p would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside. Belgian listed Umicore yields 2.68% and has a relatively similar pattern to Johnson Matthey but has underperformed somewhat of late.

Catalytic converter manufacturers are sensitive to the movements of platinum relative to palladium since either metal can be used as catalyst. Platinum hit a peak relative to palladium in 2009 and continues to trend lower on a relative basis. The ratio pulled back sharply over the last 10 days and a sustained move above 2.67 would be needed to question the medium-term trend of underperformance. In absolute terms, platinum is approaching an area of potential support in the region of the October low but a clear upward dynamic will be required to indicate the return of demand in the region of $1500.