Changes in the markets
David Fuller's view The spike
in Spanish Gov 10-yr Bond Yields
has been checked for at least the short term, following its climactic upward
acceleration. Some of the other PIIGS show similar patterns and these markets
are now susceptible to an ECB bear squeeze, lowering yields at least temporarily.
US 30-year T-Bond futures have once again
lost their temporary 'safe haven' status, as might the US
Dollar Index if the euro now steadies
from a short-term oversold condition.
It is
too soon to say if these are more than short-term changes, at best. Nevertheless,
it has been enough to firm precious metals once again. They remain within their
secular uptrends and have steadied within consolidations, as you can see from
these daily charts of gold, silver,
platinum and palladium.
These precious metals would now need to break back beneath their most recent
higher reaction lows to suggest additional reversion towards the medium-term
uptrend mean, represented by the 200-day moving averages, best viewed on weekly
charts.
Lastly,
some previously leading stock market indices have steadied, raising the possibility
that they may have seen their reaction lows within this corrective phase which
has also included mean reversion towards the medium-term uptrends. In Asia,
you can see this with Thailand and
Hong Kong after a somewhat bigger reaction,
not to mention Taiwan, which although
not a previous leader has reached a new high for the year. In Europe, note the
firmness of Sweden. In the USA, the
leading Nasdaq 100 has steadied once
again. The technical evidence is not conclusive at this stage (it cannot be
by definition until well after the event) but closes beneath the recent reaction
lows would now be required to indicate some further corrective action before
more of the cyclical stock market uptrends are resumed.
(See also Eoin's comments on grains and beans, below.)