Changes in the markets
Comment of the Day

December 01 2010

Commentary by David Fuller

Changes in the markets

During Monday's Audio, I mentioned that Euroland's sovereign debt crisis had not been resolved (how could it, except over a lengthy period) but that it had been contained for a few more months. After a delayed response, the markets appear to be drawing a similar conclusion.

David Fuller's view The spike in Spanish Gov 10-yr Bond Yields has been checked for at least the short term, following its climactic upward acceleration. Some of the other PIIGS show similar patterns and these markets are now susceptible to an ECB bear squeeze, lowering yields at least temporarily. US 30-year T-Bond futures have once again lost their temporary 'safe haven' status, as might the US Dollar Index if the euro now steadies from a short-term oversold condition.

It is too soon to say if these are more than short-term changes, at best. Nevertheless, it has been enough to firm precious metals once again. They remain within their secular uptrends and have steadied within consolidations, as you can see from these daily charts of gold, silver, platinum and palladium. These precious metals would now need to break back beneath their most recent higher reaction lows to suggest additional reversion towards the medium-term uptrend mean, represented by the 200-day moving averages, best viewed on weekly charts.

Lastly, some previously leading stock market indices have steadied, raising the possibility that they may have seen their reaction lows within this corrective phase which has also included mean reversion towards the medium-term uptrends. In Asia, you can see this with Thailand and Hong Kong after a somewhat bigger reaction, not to mention Taiwan, which although not a previous leader has reached a new high for the year. In Europe, note the firmness of Sweden. In the USA, the leading Nasdaq 100 has steadied once again. The technical evidence is not conclusive at this stage (it cannot be by definition until well after the event) but closes beneath the recent reaction lows would now be required to indicate some further corrective action before more of the cyclical stock market uptrends are resumed.

(See also Eoin's comments on grains and beans, below.)

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