China Drought to Last, Threatens Wheat as Price Gains
Comment of the Day

February 09 2011

Commentary by David Fuller

China Drought to Last, Threatens Wheat as Price Gains

Reported by Bloomberg, this is the latest chapter in a disastrous period for global agricultural production, not least due to La Niña. Here is the opening:
Feb. 9 (Bloomberg) -- A drought in China's Shandong province may persist, threatening winter-wheat crops, said the Qilu Evening News, citing the weather service. Wheat in Chicago jumped to the highest level in 29 months.

About 30 million mu (4.9 million acres) of winter wheat in the eastern province have been affected and no significant rain is expected in the next week, the report said. Shandong is facing its worst such event in 200 years if the region doesn't receive rain by the month-end, said the Xinhua News Agency.

China, the largest wheat producer, is contending with severe dryness in the North China Plain after "substantially" below-normal rain since October, said the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization. Wheat traded in Chicago, a global benchmark, climbed to its highest level since August 2008 today on concern over supplies. Protests partly linked to food costs erupted in North Africa and the Middle East in the past month.

"Drought may seriously hurt wheat output and quality," Li Qi, an analyst at Everbright Futures Co., wrote in a report.

The dry weather may worsen rapidly as temperatures get warmer and severely threaten grain output, the Ministry of Agriculture said Feb. 4. Lack of rain affected 35.1 percent of wheat in eight provinces, including Shandong and Hebei, it said.

Wheat jumped 6.6 percent to 3,051 yuan ($463) a metric ton on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, a record for the most active contract. The price in Chicago advanced as much as 1 percent to $8.83 a bushel before trading at $8.7975.

David Fuller's view Unfortunately, this food crisis which has been reported and monitored by Fullermoney from the beginning of last year, is going to be with us for at least a few more months. (See also Eoin's analysis below.)

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