China Hydropower Dams in Mekong River Give Shocks to 60 Million
Comment of the Day

October 27 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

China Hydropower Dams in Mekong River Give Shocks to 60 Million

This article by Yoolim Lee for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
The Mekong and its tributaries provide food, water and transportation to about 60 million people in Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam. Their livelihood is now threatened as their governments turn to hydroelectric dams along the river to generate power and create revenue.

China, hungry for electricity to fuel its breakneck growth, has already built four hydropower dams on the Mekong, completing the first one in 1993 without consulting its downstream neighbors.

As it prepares to overtake Japan as the world's second- largest economy this year, China wants to almost double its hydropower capacity to at least 300 gigawatts by 2020 by building four more dams on the Mekong, called Lancang Jiang, or Turbulent River, in Chinese. That would give China 15 gigawatts of power on the river.

Those projects will have a disastrous impact on Cambodia and Vietnam, says Milton Osborne, a visiting fellow at the Lowy Institute in Sydney and a historian who wrote "The Mekong: Turbulent Past, Uncertain Future" (Allen & Unwin, 2006).

'Selfish Lack of Concern'
"What the Chinese are doing shows a selfish lack of concern for the serious damage their dams will ultimately do to the downstream countries," Osborne says.

Downriver, other countries are pursuing their own objectives. Communist Laos has proposed building 10 hydropower plants on the mainstream of the Mekong that will export electricity and transform the nation -- one of Asia's poorest, with a per-capita gross domestic product of $886 -- into what the government calls "the battery of Southeast Asia."

Cambodia plans to build two dams near the border with Laos. In all, 12 dams are planned by the countries below China along the mainstream of the Mekong.

More than 130 hydropower projects are either operating or projected for the river and its tributaries, according to the Mekong River Commission, the intergovernmental group known as the MRC.

Competition to exploit -- or conserve -- the limited water resources is creating tensions among China, the countries of the MRC and international environmental organizations.

Eoin Treacy's view Earlier this year, drought in the Chinese province of Yunnan, through which the Mekong, Pearl and Yangtze rivers flow, presaged issues with the availability of water in the lower reaches of these rivers. (Also see Comment of the Day on March 11th)

Water remains a key supply inelasticity meets rising demand theme. Competition for water is only likely to increase as per capita consumption rises with higher standards of living. Supply could also come under pressure due to some of the more negative effects of climate change.

There has been a great deal of commentary over the years about the best way to benefit from the water theme. In many Asian and Latin American countries water utilities are state owned, but not so of Europe and the USA.

United Utilities yields more than 5% and is listed in the UK. It found support in the region of the 200-day MA on a number of occasions since late 2009 and is currently testing the upper side of a five-month range. A sustained move below 550p would be required to question scope for further medium-term upside.

Metering, pipe and filter companies offer another potential route to profit from water related infrastructure development. Of these the filters sector has some of the better performers.

Hawkins remains in an impressively consistent uptrend, characterised by a succession of ranges one above another. While somewhat overextended relative to the 200-day MA, a sustained move below $33 would be required to question medium-term upside potential.

Clarcor has posted a progression of higher reaction lows since early 2009 and last found support in the region of the 200-day MA in September. It rallied impressively over the last month and is now somewhat overextended. Today's downward dynamc probably caps the short-term advance but a sustained move below $35 would be required to question medium-term upside potential.

Pall Corp has more than doubled from its 2009 low and broke upwards to new recovery highs four weeks ago. While somewhat overbought in the short-term a sustained move below $35 would be required to question the consistency of the medium-term uptrend.

Northwest Pipe is also worthy of mention because the recent rally has broken the medium-term progression of lower rally highs and it is now testing the 200-day MA. A sustained move above $20 will likely indicate a return to demand dominance.

Another avenue to profit from the global shortage of potable water is through food commodities such as rice. At current prices this does not offer an ethical dilemma. However, in my opinion, if food riots begin to break out it would be ethically responsible to exit the market since the liquidity contributed by speculators is no longer a net benefit.

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