China Hydropower Dams in Mekong River Give Shocks to 60 Million
The Mekong and its tributaries provide food, water and transportation to about 60 million people in Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam. Their livelihood is now threatened as their governments turn to hydroelectric dams along the river to generate power and create revenue.
China, hungry for electricity to fuel its breakneck growth, has already built four hydropower dams on the Mekong, completing the first one in 1993 without consulting its downstream neighbors.
As it prepares to overtake Japan as the world's second- largest economy this year, China wants to almost double its hydropower capacity to at least 300 gigawatts by 2020 by building four more dams on the Mekong, called Lancang Jiang, or Turbulent River, in Chinese. That would give China 15 gigawatts of power on the river.
Those projects will have a disastrous impact on Cambodia and Vietnam, says Milton Osborne, a visiting fellow at the Lowy Institute in Sydney and a historian who wrote "The Mekong: Turbulent Past, Uncertain Future" (Allen & Unwin, 2006).
'Selfish Lack of Concern'
"What the Chinese are doing shows a selfish lack of concern for the serious damage their dams will ultimately do to the downstream countries," Osborne says.
Downriver, other countries are pursuing their own objectives. Communist Laos has proposed building 10 hydropower plants on the mainstream of the Mekong that will export electricity and transform the nation -- one of Asia's poorest, with a per-capita gross domestic product of $886 -- into what the government calls "the battery of Southeast Asia."
Cambodia plans to build two dams near the border with Laos. In all, 12 dams are planned by the countries below China along the mainstream of the Mekong.
More than 130 hydropower projects are either operating or projected for the river and its tributaries, according to the Mekong River Commission, the intergovernmental group known as the MRC.
Competition to exploit -- or conserve -- the limited water resources is creating tensions among China, the countries of the MRC and international environmental organizations.
Eoin Treacy's view Earlier this year, drought in the Chinese province of Yunnan, through which
the Mekong, Pearl and Yangtze rivers flow, presaged issues with the availability
of water in the lower reaches of these rivers. (Also see Comment of the Day
on March
11th)
Water remains a key supply inelasticity meets rising demand theme. Competition
for water is only likely to increase as per capita consumption rises with higher
standards of living. Supply could also come under pressure due to some of the
more negative effects of climate change.
There
has been a great deal of commentary over the years about the best way to benefit
from the water theme. In many Asian and Latin American countries water utilities
are state owned, but not so of Europe and the USA.
United
Utilities yields more than 5% and is listed in the UK. It found support
in the region of the 200-day MA on a number of occasions since late 2009 and
is currently testing the upper side of a five-month range. A sustained move
below 550p would be required to question scope for further medium-term upside.
Metering,
pipe and filter companies offer another potential route to profit from water
related infrastructure development. Of these the filters sector has some of
the better performers.
Hawkins
remains in an impressively consistent uptrend, characterised by a succession
of ranges one above another. While somewhat overextended relative to the 200-day
MA, a sustained move below $33 would be required to question medium-term upside
potential.
Clarcor
has posted a progression of higher reaction lows since early 2009 and last found
support in the region of the 200-day MA in September. It rallied impressively
over the last month and is now somewhat overextended. Today's downward dynamc
probably caps the short-term advance but a sustained move below $35 would be
required to question medium-term upside potential.
Pall
Corp has more than doubled from its 2009 low and broke upwards to new recovery
highs four weeks ago. While somewhat overbought in the short-term a sustained
move below $35 would be required to question the consistency of the medium-term
uptrend.
Northwest
Pipe is also worthy of mention because the recent rally has broken the medium-term
progression of lower rally highs and it is now testing the 200-day MA. A sustained
move above $20 will likely indicate a return to demand dominance.
Another
avenue to profit from the global shortage of potable water is through food commodities
such as rice. At current prices this does
not offer an ethical dilemma. However, in my opinion, if food riots begin to
break out it would be ethically responsible to exit the market since the liquidity
contributed by speculators is no longer a net benefit.