China increasingly focused on Indonesia as a source of resource deals
Comment of the Day

February 17 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

China increasingly focused on Indonesia as a source of resource deals

This article from Reuters appeared in today's Mineweb newsletter. Here is a section
Natural gas is at the top of China's shopping list, the sources said. The sources declined to be named due to their relationships with Chinese clients.

China is struggling to rely on gas for more of its surging energy needs -- its LNG imports increased by two-thirds last year to 5.53 million tonnes or 7.7 billion cubic metres (bcm).

There are multiple LNG projects in need of financing and development partners in Indonesia, and China is hungry for a slice of the action.

Indonesia's giant Natuna gas project located around 680 miles (1,094 km) north of Jakarta is one option for China. PetroChina's parent, China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) -- in addition to Chevron (CVX.N: Quote) and Eni ENI.M, among others -- has been named as a potential development partner with state energy giant Pertamina.

Still, that development is mired in controversy.

Indonesia said last year it awarded Pertamina the operating rights to Natuna because Exxon Mobil's (XOM.N: Quote) contract giving it a 76 percent share had expired in 2005. The U.S. oil major, however, has repeatedly said the contract ran until early 2009.

While Indonesia presents an opportunity for China, the country comes with ample risks -- from political corruption to opaque resources industry regulations to growing resource nationalism.

But China has already set the stage for more aggressive dealmaking in Indonesia's politically sensitive resources industry.

"It's one of their focus destinations," said Gordon Kwan, head of regional energy research at Mirae Asset Securities, adding that China will also be looking to do major deals in other regions such as Africa and Central Asia.

CIC agreed in September to loan $1.9 billion to coal firm PT Bumi Resources (BUMI.JK: Quote) -- which is controlled by the powerful and politically connected Bakrie group. [nHKG44896] And CIC would like to pursue more of these opportunities in Indonesian resource companies, the sources say.

Eoin Treacy's view There remains a considerable cohort of analysts who doubt the ability of the Chinese to sustain their development trajectory. However, this is to ignore the very real fact that they betting on themselves by aggressively acquiring the resources needed to fuel future development. And they have the cash necessary to employ such a strategy.

Indonesia remains a prime destination for such acquisitions both because of its resource rich territory and its proximity to the Chinese mainland. The Jakarta Composite Index has performed remarkably well since bottoming in 2008 and remains one of only a handful of markets that have rallied to test their all-time highs. The Index lost momentum from July but has sustained its progression of higher reaction lows. While some further consolidation in the region of the January 2008 high appears likely, a sustained move below 2250 would be required to question the consistency of the overall uptrend.

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